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2023/01/19
TrendForce’s recent analysis of the foundry market reveals that demand continues to slide for all types of mature and advanced nodes The major IC design houses have cut wafer input for 1Q23 and will likely scale back further for 2Q23 Currently, foundries are expected to maintain a lower-than-ideal level of capacity utilization rate in the first two quarters of this year Some nodes could experience a steeper demand drop in 2Q23 as there are still no signs of a significant rebound in wafer orders Looking ahead to the second half of this year, orders will likely pick up for some components that underwent an inventory correction at an earlier time However, the state of the global economy will remain the largest variable that affect demand, and the recovery of individual foundries’ capacity utilization rates will not occur as quickly as expected Taking these factors into account, TrendForce currently forecasts that global foundry revenue will drop by around 4% YoY for 2023 The projected decline for 2023 is more severe when compared with the one that was recorded for 2019
TrendForce also points out that the latest geopolitical risks have led to a geographical realignment across the supply chain In the case of IC design houses, they are preparing to lower the share of chip production based in China, and the effect of this reallocation of foundry orders will be increasingly noticeable in 2H23 and become quite obvious by 2024 The supply and demand conditions of the foundry market will gradually become regionalized as well This, in turn, will cause divergences among foundries with respect to capacity utilization Hence, the recovery of the whole foundry industry’s capacity utilization will be influenced by not only seasonal patterns and clients’ inventory levels but also geographical distribution of orders within the supply chain This last factor warrants greater attention as well
Order Reallocation Is More Significant in 8-Inch Wafer Segment, Mature Nodes Have a Higher and Steadier Capacity Utilization Rate Compared with Advanced Nodes in 12-Inch Wafer Segment
Now, entering 1Q23, sales of consumer electronics including smartphones, notebook (laptop) computers, and TVs are in a slump because of the traditional low season Moreover, the sluggish pace of inventory consumption will affect foundry orders from IC design houses for components such as consumer-grade PMICs, MOSFETs, etc Due to these developments, 8-inch wafer foundries still suffer an ongoing decline in capacity utilization rate On the other hand, the 8-inch wafer orders for 2Q23 show a slight demand rebound This is mainly attributed to some orders involving special industrial computers and a few clients adjusting order allocation among foundry partners Nevertheless, the contribution from these sources of demand to the utilization of the overall 8-inch wafer foundry capacity is limited TrendForce’s latest investigation indicates that 8-inch wafer foundries’ capacity utilization rates will remain mostly constant between 1Q23 and 2Q23 For now, TrendForce does not believe a substantial recovery will occur in the near future
Turning to 12-inch wafer foundries operating with the advanced nodes, TSMC is expected to keep a lower-than-ideal level of capacity utilization rate in 1H23 Then, TSMC should be able to raise the rate of its 7nm node in 2H23, though the increase will still be limited As for TSMC’s 5nm node, its rate will eventually return to the optimal level in 2H23 thanks to stock-up activities related to the releases of new devices during the traditional peak season Looking at Samsung, capacity utilization rate will stay low for its ≤8nm nodes through 2023 chiefly because its main clients Qualcomm and NVIDIA have opted to reallocate orders to other foundries
Regarding 12-inch wafer foundries operating with the mature nodes, they will mostly retain a capacity utilization rate of 75~85% in 1H23 These foundries, which include TSMC, UMC, and GlobalFoundries, are actively expanding into application segments that offer a more stable level of demand Examples include automotive electronics, industrial equipment, and medical devices Thus, the mature nodes are able to maintain a relatively high capacity utilization rate TrendForce has also observed that the 28nm node has a higher rate compared with the 55/40nm nodes Furthermore, foundries that have a higher proportion of consumer-grade chips in the product mix have experienced a larger rate drop Their rates have mostly dipped to around 65~75%
Capacity Utilization Rate Will Rally in 8- and 12-Inch Wafer Segments in 3Q23 Owing to Anticipation of Peak-Season Demand and Ongoing Realignment of Supply Chain
In 2H23, significant geopolitical risks will likely persist Furthermore, some major OEMs have initiated a review of supply partners so that they can meet the requirements of the tenders released by the US government Therefore, they are going to continue with their efforts to relocate their supply chains Also, IC design houses have successively moved portions of their orders to foundries based outside China Most of these reallocated orders are for 8-inch wafer foundry Therefore, non-Chinese foundries such as UMC and Vanguard will likely see a slightly above-average hike in the utilization rate of 8-inch wafer foundry capacity during the second half of the year
The market for end products as a whole has gone through about a year of inventory corrections Therefore, the momentum of stock-up activities will get stronger for certain consumer-grade chips later in 2023 as OEMs prepares for the traditional peak season TrendForce says some urgent orders and a few other orders involving products with special specifications will arrive and slightly boost foundry demand in 2Q23 Then, starting in 3Q23, capacity utilization rate will climb more noticeably in both the 8- and 12-inch wafer segments However, this rise in foundries’ capacity utilization rates could be constrained by the uncertain economic outlook Thus, foundries are not expected to return to the fully-loaded status within the short term
More Than 20 New Wafer Fabs Will Be Built in Coming Years as Countries Provide Generous Subsidies to Support Their Construction and Foundry Industry Marches into New Era of Regionalization
In the medium to long term, the foundry market will become more fragmented because the building and diversification of production capacity will take place across different regions TrendForce’s research finds that plans for a total of more than 20 new wafer fabs have been initiated in recent years Regarding the geographical distribution of these new fabs, Taiwan will have five, the US will have five, China will have six, Europe will have four, and another four will be located among South Korea, Japan, and Singapore Governments worldwide are now much more aware of the importance of local manufacturing due to recent geopolitical events, and semiconductor chips have gradually emerged as a strategic resource Therefore, apart from commercial interests and cost structure, foundries now have to give a greater consideration to certain countries’ subsidy policies and their clients’ need for local content At the same time, they will still need to maintain a healthy supply-demand balance for the whole market TrendForce believes a diverse range of offerings and an effective pricing strategy are the key factors that will enable foundries to maintain a successful operation in the future
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/08
According to TrendForce’s research, the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries rose by 6% QoQ to US$3521 billion for 3Q22 as the release of the new iPhone series during the second half of the year generated significant stock-up activities across Apple’s supply chain However, the global economy shows weak performances, and factors such as China’s policy on containing COVID-19 outbreaks and high inflation continue to impact consumer confidence As a result, peak-season demand in the second half of the year has been underwhelming, and inventory consumption is proceeding slower than anticipated This situation has led to substantial downward corrections to foundry orders as well For 4Q22, TrendForce forecasts that the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries will register a QoQ decline, thereby terminating the boom of the past two years—when there was an uninterrupted trend of QoQ revenue growth
TSMC Gained Market Share in 3Q22 Thanks to iPhone-Related Orders, and Top Five Foundries Accounted for Almost 90% of Global Market
Regarding individual foundries’ performances in 3Q22, the group of the top five was led by TSMC, followed by Samsung, UMC, GlobalFoundries, and SMIC Their collective global market share (in revenue terms) came to 896% Most foundries were directly impacted by clients slowing down their stock-up activities or significantly correcting down their orders Only TSMC was able to make a notable gain due to Apple’s strong stock-up demand for the SoCs deployed in this year’s new iPhone models TSMC saw its revenue rise by 111% QoQ to US$2016 billion, and the corresponding market share expanded to 561% The growth was mainly attributed to the ≤7nm nodes, whose share in the foundry’s revenue had kept climbing and reached 54% in the third quarter Conversely, Samsung actually experienced a slight QoQ drop of 01% in foundry revenue even though it had also benefited from the component demand related to the new iPhone series Partially impacted by the weakening of the Korean won, Samsung’s market share fell to 155%
Turning to UMC, its revenue went up by 13% QoQ to around US$248 billion for 3Q22 UMC’s performance was bolstered by the strengthening of the US dollar and the newly added 28nm production capacity that outputs higher-priced wafers GlobalFoundries posted a QoQ rise of 41% in revenue to around US$207 billion The growth was attributed to a QoQ increase in wafer shipments as well as further optimization in wafer ASP and product mix Furthermore, GlobalFoundries has been maintaining its capacity utilization rate above 90% Taking the last spot in the group of the top five, SMIC posted a slight QoQ increase of 02% in revenue to around US$191 billion SMIC has a product mix that is skewed towards consumer semiconductor components, so it saw smaller QoQ increases as well as QoQ declines in revenue performances across different applications and product categories as its clients had been focusing on inventory reduction This was especially noticeable for chips used in smartphones and several kinds of consumer electronics Nevertheless, SMIC’s revenue kept climbing because the optimization of its wafer ASP offset the issue with its product mix and the slide in its wafer shipments
The US government further expanded its export controls against China on October 7; and this development has definitely affected SMIC as its clients have become more hesitant in ramping up wafer inputs However, in the aspect of capital expenditure, SMIC is taking the opposite approach compared with most other foundries that have scaled back because of the changes in the market environment and the issue with the lead time for equipment orders Against headwinds, SMIC has raised its capital expenditure for 2022 by 32% to US$66 billion SMIC wants to speed up new equipment purchases for its three new fabs located in Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai in order to minimize the risks associated with the US export controls Hence, it has raised capital expenditure in order to make advance payments on the new equipment that is set for deployment in 2023
Among the foundries placed from sixth to 10th in the 3Q22 revenue ranking, HuaHong Group and Tower posted a QoQ revenue increase, whereas PSMC, VIS, and Nexchip recorded a QoQ drop Nexchip experienced the largest decline among the top 10 mainly because of an imbalance between demand and production capacity Specifically, driver IC suppliers including Novatek, Chipone, and Ilitek had made downward corrections to their wafer input due to mounting inventory pressure Meanwhile, Nexchip continued with its capacity expansion As a result, Nexchip’s revenue fell by 225% QoQ to US$371 million for 3Q22 Its capacity utilization rate also slid to 80~85%
Foundries Will See Steeper Revenue Drop for 4Q22 as Orders for Consumer Semiconductor Components Undergo Larger Downward Corrections
In the consumer electronics market, inventory consumption has been slower than expected, so a turnaround will unlikely happen in short term With the slump continuing, foundry orders for chips used in consumer electronics will undergo larger downward corrections This, in turn, will affect foundries’ wafer shipments and capacity utilization rates For 4Q22, TrendForce believes that the majority of the global top 10 foundries will post either a smaller growth or a drop for their revenue results This wave of order corrections will eventually affect the industry leader TSMC as well While TSMC could see a larger-than-anticipated drop in 7/6nm orders, its revenue generation will still be sustained by 5/4nm orders Even though TSMC’s revenue for 4Q22 will not register a QoQ decline, it will likely to be mostly flat compared with 3Q22
Regarding foundries’ capacity utilization in 4Q22, UMC is still going to focus on adjusting its product mix so as to allocate more production capacity to chips used in automotive electronics and industrial equipment However, its capacity utilization rate will still drop by 10 percentage points because the declining orders for chips used in consumer electronics will result in a greater amount of idled production capacity GlobalFoundries will also not be able to maintain its capacity utilization rate as it has not secured enough long-term agreements for 8-inch wafer foundry Turning to HuaHong, its subsidiary HLMC will begin to see a slide in the capacity utilization rate of its 55nm node that manufactures the MCUs, Wi-Fi chips, and CMOS image sensors used in consumer electronics Likewise, PSMC’s capacity utilization rates for 8- and 12-inch wafer foundry will retreat to 60~65% and 70~75% respectively because of the ongoing order corrections related to CMOS image sensors, DDIs, and other logic chips VIS will see its capacity utilization rate fall to around 70% as well Lastly, Nexchip is at risk of suffering downward corrections to incoming orders for driver ICs and other chips used in consumer electronics (eg, PMICs and CMOS image sensors) At the same time, the foundry is constrained from adjusting its product mix because its other process technologies have yet to reach the mass production standard Due to these factors, Nexchip’s capacity utilization rate will shrink to around 50~55%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/27
According to TrendForce research, due to steady weakening of overall demand for consumer electronics, inventory pressure has increased among downstream distributors and brands Although there are still sporadic shortages of specific components, the curtain has officially fallen on a two-year wave of shortages in general, and brands have gradually suspended stocking in response to changes in market conditions However, stable demand for automotive and industrial equipment is key to supporting the ongoing growth of foundry output value At the same time, since the creation of a marginal amount of new capacity in 2Q22 led to growth in wafer shipments and a price hike for certain wafers, this drove output value among top ten foundries to reach US$3320 billion in 2Q22 Quarterly growth fell to 39% on a weakening consumer market
A prelude to inventory correction was officially revealed in 3Q22 In addition to intensifying severity in the initial wave of order slashing for LDDI/TDDI, and TV SoC, diminishing order volume also extended to non-Apple smartphone APs and peripheral IC PMIC, CIS, and consumer electronics PMICs, and mid-to-low-end MCUs, posing a challenge for foundry capacity utilization However, the launch of the new iPhone in 3Q22 is expected to prop up a certain amount of stocking momentum for the sluggish market Therefore, top ten foundry revenue in 3Q22 is expected to maintain a growth trend driven by high-priced processes and quarterly growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than in 2Q22
With tide of inventory correction approaching, foundries furiously migrate production capacity to sectors of stable demand such as automotive and industrial equipment
Benefiting from strong demand for HPC, IoT, and automotive stocking activities, TSMC posted 2Q22 revenue of US$1815 billion but quarterly growth rate contracted to 35% due to wafer mark ups inflating the 1Q22 revenue base period As Nvidia, AMD, Bitmain, and other HPC customers continue to ramp up their new products for more advanced nodes, 5/4nm revenue increased by approximately 111% QoQ, securing this node the best revenue performance in 2Q22 Although the 7/6nm market was uncertain given murky mid/low-end smartphones market conditions and client order revisions, the node maintained a backstop in the form of mainstream products originating from HPC customers Revenue generated by this node increased by 28% QoQ
Samsung's 7/6nm production capacity has been gradually migrating to the 5/4nm process and yield rate has continued to improve, driving 2Q22 revenue to US$559 billion, a quarterly increase of 49% At the same time, the first 3GAE process using GAA architecture was officially mass-produced at the end of 2Q22 The first wave of customers includes PanSemi, a Chinese cryptocurrency mining company However, due to the complex 3nm production process, production will require two quarters Therefore, the 3nm node is not expected to contribute to revenue until the end of 2022, at the earliest UMC's new 28/22nm production capacity went online smoothly in 2Q22, driving the growth of overall wafer shipments and ASP This node's revenue share moved up to 22% this quarter while 2Q22 revenue reached US$245 billion, growing 81% QoQ, and the highest in the top ten
GlobalFoundries benefited from the release of a small amount of new production capacity and long-term agreement (LTA) guarantees for most of its production capacity Revenue in 2Q22 reached US$199 billion, a quarterly increase of 27% It is worth noting, assisted by the recent US CHIPS Act, Qualcomm, a major American manufacturer, signed a new contract with GlobalFoundries to extend their LTA period to 2028 with a significant increase in agreed volume, mainly producing 5G RF transceivers and Wi-Fi7 in Malta Fab8 at the 14/12nm node, aimed at supporting the localized production of wafers in the US SMIC's 2Q22 revenue reached US$190 billion, up 33% QoQ, while its proportion of revenue in the smartphone sector fell to 254% The smart home sector maintains strong growth momentum and revenue from related application products such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, PMIC, and MCU peripheral IC for networking and smart control devices increased by approximately 234% QoQ
Operating performance of second- and third-tier foundries peaked and utilization rate may decline in 2H22
The sixth to eighth positions are occupied by Hua Hong Group, PSMC, and VIS, respectively Except for PSMC, revenue posted by other operators was driven by factors such as increases in average selling price and production expansion, leading to marginal growth in 2Q22 revenue In terms of PSMC, foundry revenue in 2Q22 was US$656 million, down 14% QoQ Since consumer DDI and CIS were among the first wave of product orders revised by customers, this was reflected in the operating performance of each process platform while revenue from both HV and CIS processes declined PMIC increased by approximately 226% QoQ, reflecting that certain PMIC products retain stocking momentum and also demonstrating PSMC’s strategy of continuing to convert production lines to produce PMICs
Nexchip studiously expanded its production capacity and technology platform process diversity, driving overall wafer shipment growth and contributing to revenue Revenue in 2Q22 was approximately US$463 million, up 45% QoQ At the same time, in addition to partnering with SmartSens to develop 90nm CIS and continuously increasing production volume, the company also partnered with MediaTek to develop 01Xµm smartphone PMIC, contributing to non-driver IC business revenue Tower has no short-term plans to significantly expand production and its revenue was mainly driven by ASP and product mix optimization Revenue in 2Q22 reached US$426 million, up 12% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/08/04
According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification
TrendForce indicates that this incident has greatly affected TSMC's production expansion plan, resulting in Apple being the one company among the first wave of 3nm process clients from 2H22 to the start 2023 with products including M series chips and A17 Bionic In view of this, TSMC has decided to slow the progress of its production expansion to ensure production capacity is not excessively idle, leading to massive cost amortization pressure In addition to formally notifying equipment suppliers of the company’s intention to adjust 2023 equipment orders, due to the high cost of 3nm expansion, TrendForce expects that this move will also affect some parts of TSMC’s 2023 CapEx planning As a result, the scale of TSMC’s CapEx in 2023 may be lower than in 2022
It is worth mentioning, although Intel has significantly adjusted its 2023 outsourcing plan, causing TSMC to postpone its 2023 expansion plans, looking at other advanced process clients including AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, all of these companies successively plan to mass-produce 3nm products in 2024 At the same time, Apple's new 2024 iPhone is expected to fully adopt 3nm processors The introduction of the aforementioned clients will inject momentum into TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization and revenue performance in 2024
TrendForce believes, although TSMC has decided to curb its CapEx in 2023 due to the delay of Intel products, TSMC's annual revenue will still grow compared with 2022 but at a slower rate The reduction in CapEx can also relieve TSMC’s huge cost amortization pressure and reduce the degree of gross profit dilution in the early stage of 3nm mass production
Looking forward to 2024, with new products from clients such as AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm in place, 3nm process output is expected to be on track, further promoting strong growth in TSMC's revenue scale However, the development status of Intel's own Intel 4 process and the accompanying outsourcing situation are still important potential growth drivers for TSMC If Intel 4 fails to mass-produce as scheduled, Intel may outsource its computing tiles to TSMC, strongly driving growth in 2024 However, if the Intel process develops smoothly, there remains the possibility of the company choosing to manufacture related products itself and canceling TSMC's orders
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/07/07
According to TrendForce investigations, foundries have seen a wave of order cancellations with the first of these revisions originating from large-size Driver IC and TDDI, which rely on mainstream 01Xμm and 55nm processes, respectively Although products such as MCU and PMIC were previously in short supply, foundries’ capacity utilization rate remained roughly at full capacity through their adjustment of product mix However, a recent wave cancellations have emerged for PMIC, CIS, and certain MCU and SoC orders Although still dominated by consumer applications, foundries are beginning to feel the strain of the copious order cancellations from customers and capacity utilization rate has officially declined
Looking at trends in 2H22, TrendForce indicates, in addition to no relief from the sustained downgrade of driver IC demand, inventory adjustment has begun for smartphones, PCs, and TV-related peripheral components such as SoCs, CIS, and PMICs, and companies are beginning to curtail their wafer input plans with foundries This phenomenon of order cancellations is occurring simultaneously in 8-inch and 12-inch fabs at nodes including 01Xμm, 90/55nm, and 40/28nm Not even the advanced 7/6nm processes are immune
Capacity utilization rate unbound, resources effectively allocated, material mismatch issues eased
According to TrendForce research, the capacity utilization rate of eight-inch nodes (including 035-011μm) may decline the most Products utilizing these processes are primarily Driver IC, CIS, and Power-related chips (PMIC, Power discrete, etc) Among these products, Driver IC has been directly impacted by cooling demand for TVs and PCs, reflected by the most severe downward revision of wafer inputs At the same time, the supply of PMICs, which was still tight in 1H22, gradually achieved greater equilibrium after the redistribution of production capacity
However, as demand continues to fall in 2H22, inventory adjustment has also begun for consumer PMICs and CISs Although there are still demand backstops for PMICs and power discrete originating from servers, automotive, and industrial applications, it is still difficult to make up the difference generated by driver IC, consumer PMICs and CISs order cancellations and the subsequent decline in the capacity utilization rate at some 8-inch fabs TrendForce believes that the overall capacity utilization rate of 8-inch fabs will be roughly 90~95% in 2H22, while some fabs manufacturing a greater proportion of consumer applications may have to fight an uphill battle to maintain production capacity at 90%
The same situation has also occurred in mature 12-inch processes However, since 12-inch products are more diverse and their production cycle generally takes at least one quarter, coupled with upgrades to some product specifications, trends such as process transition have not been affected by broader short-term economic fluctuations As a result, overall production capacity utilization rate can still be maintained at a high operational watermark of approximately 95% Compared with operating rates that easily hit 100% in the past two years, production line operation has gradually normalized and stabilized, demonstrating a steady balancing of resource allocation
In terms of advanced processes, these are utilized primarily to produce CPU, GPU, ASIC, 5G AP, FPGA, AI accelerator, etc Terminal applications remain dominated by smartphones and high-performance computing (HPC) Affected by the weak smartphone market, 5G APs have also experienced downward revisions of order volume but stocking momentum for HPC-related products remains stable Coupled with plans to announce a number of new products, TrendForce believes that 7/6nm capacity utilization rate will decline marginally to 95~99% in 2H22 due to product mix conversion, while 5/4nm processes will remain near full load, driven by several new products
Looking forward to 2023, TrendForce believes, after nearly two and a half years of chip shortages, cooling of consumer product demand will ease the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries in the short term and applications that were starved for chips in the past are now able to obtain a reallocation of resources The penetration rate of related applications such as 5G smartphones and electric vehicles has increased year by year while the stocking momentum of 5G base stations, infrastructure in various countries including automated security inspection measures, and server demand from cloud services will continue to support the capacity utilization rate of foundries at a level roughly above 90% However, some manufacturers that mainly produce consumer products may see capacity utilization rate fall below 90% At this time, foundries must rely on their own internal diversified planning and resource allocation of product applications to overcome the inflationary crisis of component inventory adjustments
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
