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2023/01/16
Annual global shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to climb from around 128 million units for 2022 to around 185 million units for 2023, says TrendForce in its latest report on the market for OLED displays Among the key components for a foldable smartphone, hinges play a critical role in determining the cost of the whole device In a foldable smartphone, hinges are responsible for the durability or flex life of the foldable display, the visibility of the fold crease on the display, the feel of flipping the device, and many other functions that are vital to user experience In other words, the quality of hinges will directly affect consumers’ willingness to purchase a foldable smartphone With the penetration rate of foldable models rising in the smartphone market, the value of the global market for hinges used in foldable OLED smartphones will rise by 146% YoY to above the level of US$500 million for 2023
Currently, the designs of the hinges used in foldable smartphones fall under two main categories: teardrop-shaped and U-shaped The former contains many complex parts and costs several times higher than the latter As the penetration rate of foldable models rises, TrendForce believes cost pressure will be the foremost issue facing smartphone brands that have adopted teardrop-shaped hinge
Advances in Hinge Design Are Instrumental in Driving Sales of Foldable Smartphones, and U-Shaped Hinge Has Majority Market Share
Looking at the distribution of the foldable smartphone market by brand, Samsung that relies on U-shaped hinges had the largest market share of 82% in 2022 Samsung’s main suppliers for foldable smartphone hinges include KH Vatech and S-connect Going forward, Samsung will diversify its hinge suppliers in order to further cut costs Other smartphone brands have adopted teardrop-shaped hinges, and their collective market share for foldable models came to almost 20% in 2022 Suppliers for teardrop-shaped hinges include Amphenol and Asia Vital Components (AVC)
TrendForce’s analysis finds that the three major aspects of hinge design is allowable screen perimeter, balance of stress, and material composition From consumers’ perspective, allowable screen perimeter affects the depth of the fold crease, balance of stress affects the opening and closing of the device, and material composition affects the weight of the device Fold crease is the issue that is most brought up by users of foldable devices TrendForce points out that the display of a foldable smartphone does not actually completely fold flat when closed Based on the hinge design, the foldable display will either turn into a “U” or a shape resembling a water droplet The most notable difference between U-shaped and teardrop-shaped hinges is the allowable screen perimeter and the crease effect Given the same thickness of the device, teardrop-shaped hinge has a larger allowable screen perimeter than U-shaped hinge, and the corresponding crease is less visible
Balance of stress is the design factor that affects the durability of the hinge (as expressed in the number of folding and unfolding sequences) and the smoothness of the opening and closing actions The parts of a hinge have to be assembled in a way that balances out the various forces of a folding or unfolding action, thereby minimizing wear and tear As for material composition, foldable smartphone hinges have complex parts that significantly add to the weight and assembly cost The hinges for the earlier generations of foldable smartphones were made from stainless steel (SUS) using a metal injection molding (MIM) process Later on, smartphone brands adopted aerospace materials that contain rare and expensive metals Lately, there has been a switch to carbon fiber composites Besides simplifying hinge designs, smartphone brands have also been seeking light and strong composite materials in order to further lower the device weight
With regard to the foldable smartphones that are now on the market, the “ultra-slim” Mix Fold 2 that was recently released by Xiaomi has created a significant buzz With a thickness of just 112mm when folded, the Mix Fold 2 features a carbon fiber composite that offers a substantial improvement in terms of grip and feel Subsequently, other brands have also followed suit and adopted the same kind of material Examples include HONOR’s Magic Vs and OPPO’s Find N2 The hinges of the Magic Vs are also noted for embracing a mortise-and-tenon structure that is made using a one-piece molding process This design reduces the number of hinge parts and further narrows the weight difference between foldable and non-foldable smartphones
Apart from smartphone brands, panel makers have also gotten involved in the development of foldable smartphone hinges For instance, CSOT has unveiled a “semi-set” production flow that integrates integrates an OLED display module with the required hinges, thereby resulting in a one-piece component Panel makers hope that with this kind of solution, they will be able to confirm with smartphone brands about the form factor and design of the foldable display early on during the course of device development This, in turn, will accelerate the product development cycle and ensure that the device is fully optimized in terms of lifespan and performance
Smartphone Brands’ Strategies for Foldable Device Market
A survey of the various solutions for foldable smartphone hinges reveals that Samsung has stayed with the U-shaped, single-axis design for its Galaxy Z Fold series A torque module was introduced with the Z Fold 2, and it enables the device to stay open or flex at different angles Also, for the Z Fold series, Samsung uses hinges that are made with a process involving MIM and computer numerical control (CNC) In other words, parts are mainly made with precision machining and fit together through precision assembling Even though consumers do care about crease, Samsung does not focus too much on this particular issue Instead, it concentrates its efforts on simplifying the hinge design Cutting down the number of parts and raising the number of Tier-2 outsourcing partners will save costs At the same time, the aim of creating a lighter device can be achieved
The outstanding issues that have yet to be effectively resolved in the development of foldable smartphones are the inability of the device to fully close and the notable body thickness Nevertheless, TrendForce believes that Samsung will continue to work on U-shaped hinges because it wants to lower costs while maintaining a healthy profit margin for its foldable smartphones With this approach, Samsung can make foldable models more popular and capture a large slice of market share for this type of product in the low-end segment
As for other smartphone brands that are more concerned about user experience, their development efforts will center on the teardrop-shaped, dual-axis design that requires many more complex parts and costly metallic materials for support (eg, “liquid metals” and other materials that are usually reserved for aerospace applications) In addition to the high manufacturing cost, there is also the substantial weight that teardrop-shaped hinges add to the device Currently, there is no effective way to resolve the weight problem Nevertheless, teardrop-shaped hinge is a design concept that mainly addresses the issue of the fold crease and presently serves as a feature that helps further segment the market for foldable smartphones (ie, high-end ones with teardrop-shaped hinges versus those with U-shaped hinges in the lower range)
At CES 2023, the well-known smartphone brands showed off various concept devices featuring foldable displays For instance, there were models that leverage foldability and stretchability to expand screen size This would allow adjustments in screen size and aspect ratio for different use scenarios while maintaining the same device form factor In the future, the introduction of new kinds of products such as foldable ones could lead to a reshuffling of the smartphone market and radical changes in product positioning strategy across the all price segments, from the high-end to the lower range
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/01
TrendForce’s latest report—AMOLED Technology and Market Status—points out that the display panel industry has initiated plans for large-generation fabs that manufacture OLED panels The migration of the OLED display technology to larger generations is driven by the recent improvements in related process technologies and materials Also, brands have also been pushing for the adoption of OLED for larger display products TrendForce forecasts that by 2025, the penetration rate of OLED panels among IT products will reach 28% on account of the gradual deployment of the supporting panel production capacity Then, the OLED penetration rate in the IT segment is expected to take off noticeably in 2026, coming to 52%
According to TrendForce’s analysis, panel suppliers are confronted with challenges in several areas as they plan to migrate OLED panel manufacturing from the existing G6 fabs to larger-generation fabs so that this display technology can cross into the IT segment These areas are as follows:
[1] Evaporation Equipment
Regarding the selection of OLED evaporation equipment and related process technologies, some panel suppliers are hoping that the vertical evaporation method will solve the problem of the sagging of the fine metal mask (FMM) However, vertical evaporation is a new processing method that still has a lot of technical uncertainties to be worked through As for the existing horizontal evaporation method, panel suppliers want to see further optimizations so that they can maintain a certain level of production capacity with less number of equipment than before Additionally, Apple is thinking about adopting the two-stacked tandem structure (Tandem OLED) that can significantly increase the lifespan of its OLED displays From panel suppliers’ perspective, setting up evaporation processing capacity within a certain amount of fab space is a lot harder if OLED panels feature the tandem structure However, there are alternative solutions for increasing the lifespan of OLED displays One way is to perform an OLED pixel simulation, through which a blue subpixel layer is added to help achieve a better color balance and longer lasting colors
Raising glass utilization rate is also another aim behind the migration to larger-generation fabs For instance, G87 currently has about a 10% gain in production efficiency compared with G85 Nevertheless, target customers may have a preferred supplier for the evaporation equipment In the case of Apple, it favors Cannon Tokki from Japan Hence, there is a possibility that the sizes of OLED panel substrates could be limited by the panel sizes that Tokki’s evaporation equipment can handle in the future
Turning to the technologies in the manufacturing of OLED panel backplanes, LTPO offers a higher efficiency in terms of power consumption Additionally, large-sized OLED panels will need an auxiliary electrode to support the existing transparent cathode in the pixel circuit The auxiliary electrode helps boost conductivity and thereby resolve the problem of IR drop that is often seen in large-sized panels On the other hand, the number of photo masks used in fabricating a pixel circuit is determined by the locations of electrodes, so certain designs may require more masks Moreover, adding a new electrode could affect the transparency of OLED panels
[2] Foldability
If OLED is to be adopted for foldable notebook computers, finding the right kind of material for the cover lens also requires some considerations Currently, ultra-thin glass (UTG) is superior to colorless polyimide (CPI) in terms of performance However, the former has shortcomings such as a higher price and a supply chain that is relatively less developed Samsung has adopted “Color Filter on Encapsulation (COE)” for the OLED displays of its foldable smartphones This solution reduces the thickness of an OLED display by eliminating circular polarizer, thus allowing for higher brightness and greater foldability As for foldable notebook computers, these devices have a larger screen size and thus susceptible to more glare Therefore, to effectively absorb reflected light while abandoning circular polarizer, some kind of a “black pixel define layer (BPDL)” is needed in addition to the black matrix resist that is incorporated into the existing color filter However, there are challenges in the manufacturing of a BPDL because a relatively thick film that is darkened with an organic dye is difficult to form and deposit using the exposure process
[3] Touch Function
Looking at the touch function that is standard with smartphone display panels, it is more susceptible to environmental noise interference as the display size increase In the past, mutual capacitance sensing was sufficient performance-wise However, with OLED now being adopted for notebook computers that has a touch display, making the switch to self-capacitance sensing may be necessary in order to resolve the problem of false touch points However, this change in sensing technology will also entail a review of the touch circuit design and the die sizes of the touch and display driver ICs so that the thickness of the bottom display border will not increase on account of the whole fan-out area
[4] Image Sticking
At the system level, image sticking (burn-in) on an OLED display tends to occur in parts of the screen where app icons are located since icons are static images with fixed locations This problem, which has to do with the aging of OLED pixels, has been continuously worked on since it first appeared Anti-aging solutions now include pixel shifting and the tandem structure, which can reduce pixel current by half In the future, the development of OLED could reach the point where burn-in could be effectively resolved By then, a dark mode featuring a black background and white texts could also be possible for OLED displays
Following the overview of the above-mentioned issues in the manufacturing of large OLED panels, TrendForce now turns to the adoption of OLED for IT products On the whole, there are three main directions in technology development over the long run
[1] Cost Reduction
Cost savings can be achieved through several ways such as raising glass utilization rate, streamlining the LTPO+COE process, optimizing the electron transport layer (ETL), developing local sources of the key materials, and adopting more advanced evaporation equipment The cost of manufacturing large-sized OLED panels for IT products will also fall on account of other factors For instance, the price of UTG will go down as the number of suppliers for this kind of material rises Moreover, better choices could appear for the designs and materials of foldable notebook display hinges Lastly, printing process has the highest material utilization rate Therefore, panel suppliers will need to find ways to apply the printing process to the fabrication of the tandem structure and other parts of the OLED panel
[2] Improvements in Efficiency and Reliability
Panel suppliers will be incorporating new technologies such as COE and micro-lens panel (MLP) to raise light-emitting efficiency and lower power consumption At the same time, they will attempt to extend the lifespan of the existing OLED materials To further minimize the problem of image sticking in certain parts of the screen, the user interface has to be designed in ways that address the issue of static image content causing OLED pixels to age and degrade
[3] Greater Range of Applications
Flexible, thin, and self-emitting OLED panels enable different folding forms for various user scenarios At the same time, they also allow for integration with other technologies such as under-display camera, fingerprint sensor, etc
In sum, OLED is gradually becoming mainstream for smartphones, but it still has many challenges to overcome in order to expand into other applications that involve larger display sizes Nevertheless, TFT-LCD as a traditional display technology is almost at its fullest maturity in terms of product design Thus, OLED, which has a much larger room for imaginations, is a significant technology that brands will be focusing on in the future TrendForce believes that the next one to two years will be a critical period for the growth of OLED in the market for IT products The extent of the improvements in related technologies and the magnitude of investments in the supporting large-generation panel production capacity will determine if the adoption of OLED in the IT segment will proceed smoothly
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/21
According to the latest TrendForce research report, the proportion of OLED in the mobile phone market is expected to exceed 50% in 2023, up from 42% in 2021 As the penetration of OLED in the mobile phone market gradually expands, IT products will be the next battlefield for key OLED developments In order to further expand the IT market, panel manufacturers have increased capital expenditures for the construction of IT panel production lines and shifted planning to higher generational fabs to achieve more effective and economical sectioning but also taking on increasingly technical challenges
Compared with the performance of traditional LCDs in laptops, OLED present obvious disadvantages in terms of lifespan and pricing and its IR drop (voltage drop) has a more obvious effect on power consumption as size increases In order to resolve voltage drop and pixel non-uniformity caused by current passing through a large area, in addition to the transparency and thickness (resistance) of the cathode, the design of additional auxiliary electrodes is even more important in reducing power consumption In terms of performance, COE (Color filter On Encapsulation) and MLP (Micro Lens Panel) technology can also be used to increase light extraction efficiency and reduce overall power consumption Coupled with the introduction of Tandem technology, connecting OLEDs in series can effectively extend material lifespan since current is halved at the same brightness, thus meeting the specifications of notebook PCs
In terms of materials, in order to solve the problems related to poor traditional fluorescent luminous efficiency and blue phosphorescence lifespan, in addition to LGD's mass production of deuterium blue series fluorescent materials, the strategic deployment of third-generation OLED material TADF (Thermally Activated Delayed Fluorescence) and fourth-generation super-fluorescence mass production has also gradually accelerated The 100% energy conversion that could only be achieved previously by doping noble metals in phosphorescence can be achieved by TADF, while super-fluorescence is achieved by doping TADF fluorescent materials to improve the issues of TADF’s large half-wave width, poor color purity, and lifespan In addition to actively improving the luminous efficiency of blue light, SDC also recently acquired German company Cynora and 300 to 400 OLED patents Previously, Cynora released green and blue TADF materials, claiming blue materials increase luminous efficiency by 15% In addition to restraining the price of UDC’s blue phosphorescent materials, this acquisition also poses a threat to panel factories that choose to use TADF materials in the future If there is a dispute with Kyulux, another Japanese company that has made progress in TADF, SDC can form a protective barrier of patents
TrendForce further indicates, in the construction of large-generational OLED panel fabs, glass substrates laminated with thin-film encapsulated hybrid OLEDs will be prioritized to reduce weight and to cope with the problem of wrinkling at the edges of PI substrates as surface area increases In addition, evaporation machinery size limitations have always been problematic Arranging the various generations of evaporation machinery has become key to the development of the current wave of technological evolution In order to overcome sagging FMM mask center of gravity caused by the lengthening and resolution of larger generations and to ensure evaporation yield after surface totals increase, SDC partnered with ULVAC to develop vertical evaporation equipment However, the transportation of vertical substrates, the distribution of tension after vertical meshing, and the uniformity of material flow during vertical evaporation will all lead to more challenges in the new process In addition, since SDC signed an agreement with ULVAC, other panel manufacturers are looking to TOKKI to continue discussions regarding generational re-optimization of horizontal machines and wish to overcome core problems in a more stable fashion such as with G86 or multiple G6 machinery As for the large-generational printed OLED jointly developed by CSOT and JOLED, relevant materials and equipment have yet to be perfected, which will affect the subsequent planning of CSOT in regards to OLED notebooks and the development of its T8 production line
In summary, TrendForce believes the next few years will be a critical period for the enhancement of OLED penetration In the past, Apple has repeatedly played a key role in many new technologies and the launch of new products The aforementioned development and discussion of numerous medium-sized OLED technologies are also highly related to Apple's plan to adopt OLED panels in future mid-size products Since the near-term remains constrained by the slow evolution of the efficiency of large generational equipment and materials, coupled with the overall impact of a poor economic environment as a whole, the development of OLED panels in medium-sized IT products will continue to move slowly in the next two years However, if Apple can launch iPad and MacBook series with OLED panels in accordance with its planning after 2024, it is expected to bring extremely positive benefits to the development of OLED panels in terms of IT products
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/08/24
According to TrendForce, as technology and materials evolve, the penetration rate of OLED folding mobile phones is estimated to reach 11% in 2022 While mobile phone brands successive launch new flagship folding devices, penetration rate is expected to exceed 25% post-2024 driven by improved specifications and increasingly competitive pricing In addition, there is an opportunity to provide a breath of fresh air to a market steeped in sluggish consumer sentiment led by inflation and drive folding mobile phones into the mainstream
In response to the successive launch of new phones by Samsung, Xiaomi, and Motorola, TrendForce analyzes the foldable model from three aspects: construction, specifications, and technology According to usage preferences, mobile phone types can be divided into easy to carry, vertical flip-top folding, and horizontal folding that can act as small tablets when unfolded In terms of construction, there is the inward fold that requires an extra secondary screen and the outward fold that is lighter in weight but exposes the screen to the risk of scratches Although the outward folding radius is larger, the mechanical performance of the module and hinge design is very challenging and, since the screen is exposed, it must be kept in close contact with the hinge at every angle The radius for inward folding screens is smaller, though compressive stress is greater, which promotes creases and related reliability issues However, according to general usage habits, if an inward fold can effectively reduce weight and eliminate creases, coupled with the advantage of the screen being protected by the mobile phone case, this type of device would be more likely to be popular with consumers
In terms of specifications, the size of vertical folding screens is approximately 65~7 inches and the size of horizontal folding screens is 75~8 inches The refresh rate of the two primary screens is 120Hz, while horizontal secondary screens have advanced from 60Hz to 120Hz and vertical secondary screens are limited by screen size, thus, maintaining a 60Hz refresh rate
In terms of technology, in addition to the introduction of widely known LTPO which can deliver a low refresh rate to conserve power, the follow-up development of next-generation LTPO20 dynamic intelligent control technology that maintains smooth frequency conversion is also worth paying attention to The Xiaomi Mix fold 2 adopts the same design methodology as the Samsung fold 4 It uses low-temperature CF as a polarizer replacement to increase light output efficiency coupled with an AR (anti-reflection) coated UTG (ultra-thin glass) to reduce the impact of polarizer removal Overall thickness is greatly reduced which is beneficial to folding However, in order to perfectly present the effect of a flexible folding screen, it is necessary to simulate and optimize film material, stacking, hinge selection, and mid-frame design, and to find the most suitable combination based on reliability and cost considerations For example, the hinges of key components are U-shaped and teardrop-shaped A U-shaped bending radius is small and stress is concentrated within a smaller area while the teardrop-shaped bending radius is larger but its composition is more complex and can easily require hundreds of parts In addition, teardrop shaped material options include liquid metal, carbon fiber, Ti alloy, stainless steel, plastic, etc, and can cost at least 3 to 4 times more than the U-shaped hinge
In this iteration, the Xiaomi hinge is made of carbon fiber material which reduces weight by 35% With its self-developed micro-teardrop shaped hinge, average thickness is reduced by 18% compared with other models, making the thickness of the entire folded device very close to the thickness of an iPhone 13 The moto razr 2022 uses a double-rotating teardrop-type orbiting shaft Due to the large space required by the double-shaft structure, the radius of the folded teardrop can be set at 33mm, which makes crease generation difficult It also supports multi-angle hovering in addition to seamless folding In addition, driven by a full screen, the Galaxy Z fold4 optimizes the pixel design of the under-screen camera location to improve resolution and reduce visual issues Xiaomi is creating new user habits directly by moving the selfie lens to the secondary screen, though its screen size seems slightly insufficient for work and video conferences
TrendForce indicates that panel supplier SDC (Samsung Display Company) is the biggest winner among this wave of new foldable phones However, as industry chain technology continues to improve, more panel suppliers will join in the price competition Judging from the current selection of brands, in addition to BOE, which has been deeply involved in OLED applications, Visionox, which has recently announced a number of technologies, is expected to break through the pack, and the proportion of supply should increase significantly After Xiaomi's cooperation with CSOT on the Mix Fold, the company seems to have turned its attention to Tianma this year and more foldable products from Tianma are expected for release
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
