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2021/09/14
Thanks to their continued capacity expansion and M&A efforts, Chinese panel manufacturers accounted for nearly 60% of the global supply of TV panels in 1H21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations These suppliers have not only managed to dominate their global competitors, but also become the key determinant of the supply and demand situation in the TV panel market TrendForce believes that, while the TV panel market has started to experience a bearish trend, the industry must pay close attention to whether Chinese suppliers will eschew their previous strategy of maximum capacity utilization and instead turn to other options in order to maintain the health of the overall market Taiwanese and Korean suppliers, on the other hand, have opted for a strategy that optimizes their existing operations by reallocating some of their production capacities from TV panels to other product categories such as IT panels In addition to raising these suppliers’ competitiveness through better product differentiation, the reallocation of production capacity also alleviates the suppliers’ pressure of having to rely solely on TV products to expend their panel capacities
Because the TV panel market’s out-of-balance supply and demand situation is unlikely to be resolved on its own, certain panel manufacturers have already begun assessing the feasibility of adjusting their production capacities for 4Q21 In particular, Gen 85 and Gen 105 production lines, which manufacture the majority of TV panels, play a key role in ensuring balance between the market’s supply and demand While panel suppliers are expected to independently reduce their current capacity utilization rates, their new production lines will also gravitate towards a slowdown in panel output Furthermore, ongoing issues with the supply of glass substrates will also constrain the capacity utilization rates of certain panel suppliers
Taking the above considerations into account, TrendForce expects Gen 5 (and above) production lines to contribute to the supply of all display panels, measured by total panel area, by 25% less than previously expected for 4Q21 As well, in order to alleviate the pressure of excess production capacity for TV panels, panel suppliers will not only increase the share of 85-inch (and above) TV panels in their current output, but also reallocate some of their production capacities from TV panels to IT panels, including desktop monitor panels and notebook panels, both of which are currently in demand These aforementioned assumptions would suggest that total TV panel input by area is expected to undergo a 21% QoQ decline for 4Q21 In particular, Gen 85 lines, which account for much of TV panel manufacturing, will experience the most noticeable capacity reduction at an 115% QoQ drop for 4Q21
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/08/05
Thanks to TV manufacturers’ aggressive procurement activities, global TV panel shipment for 1H21 reached 1352 million pcs, a 35% YoY increase, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Notably, high-end OLED TV panels and 8K LCD TV panels showed diametrically opposed movements The former product category reached a 26% market share in 1H21 (with room for further growth going forward) due to LGD’s capacity expansion as well as the narrowing gap between OLED panel prices and LCD panel prices On the other hand, the latter’s market share fell to a mere 02% in 1H21 as panel suppliers were generally reluctant to manufacture 8K LCD TV panels due to these panels’ poor yield rates
TrendForce’s findings indicate that Chinese panel suppliers were able to achieve a 583% share in the TV panel market, which was nearly 5 percentage points higher than their 1H20 market share, thanks to their growing number of production lines Conversely, Taiwanese suppliers saw their market share drop by 22 percentage points from 1H20 levels to 211% in 1H21 This decline took place because of their limited production capacities and because they reallocated some of their production capacities for TV panels to IT products instead Korean suppliers likewise experienced a decline in market share to 143% after SDC shuttered its Korea-based LCD fabs L7-2 and L8-1-2 and sold its Suzhou-based Gen 85 fab to CSOT Finally, Japanese suppliers’ market shares increased to 63% as a result of SDPC’s Gen 105 capacity expansion
Regarding OLED TV panels, which are relatively high-end products, it should be pointed out that LGD is the sole supplier of these panels Not only did LGD expand the production capacity of its Guangzhou-based OLED panel fab, but LGD’s clients in the TV sector were also increasingly willing to procure OLED panels in light of the narrowing gap between OLED panel prices and LCD panel prices Hence, the penetration rate of OLED panels in the TV panel market grew to 26% in 1H21, with about 3556 million pcs shipped throughout the period Furthermore, now that the Guangzhou fab’s OLED panel capacity reached 90k sheets/month in 2Q21, TrendForce expects annual OLED TV panel shipment for 2021 to reach 8 million pcs, with a 3% penetration rate in the overall TV panel market
On the other hand, 8K LCD TV panels reached a mere 02% penetration rate in the TV panel market in 1H21 because panel suppliers’ concerns about profit and yield maximization resulted in their relatively low willingness to manufacture these products On the demand side, clients were also unwilling to procure these panels due to persistently high quotes from suppliers With regards to panel suppliers, CSOT in particular benefitted from the unique structure of its client base, which allowed it to dominate more than half of the 8K LCD TV panel market, with AUO taking second place The respective market shares of CSOT and AUO currently sit at 544% and 226% TrendForce forecasts a 02% penetration rate for 8K LCD TV panels for 2021 as the growth of these products is constrained by their relatively high prices and the current paucity of 8K content
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/06/28
In view of aggressive procurement activities for panels used in various applications, TrendForce forecasts a 2% glut ratio for the large-sized TFT-LCD panel market for 2021, representing a supply and demand situation that ranges from “healthy” to “slightly in shortage” As a lack of components constrained panel shipment in 1H21, the overall panel market during this period had a 12% glut ratio, which was lower than the average range of 25-3% and represented a supply shortage in the panel market Hence, panel prices were driven into an uptrend for the first half of the year
Regarding the glass input of panel suppliers for 1H21, despite the tight upstream supply of glasses due to certain work safety-related accidents, the overall capacity utilization rate of panel suppliers remained above 80% Furthermore, as newly installed capacities, including CSOT’s T7 fab and HKC’s production lines in Changsha, kick off production, large-sized TFT-LCD glass input by area grew to 1178 Mn2 (million square meters) On the other hand, owing to the proliferation of the stay-at-home economy last year, most display brands carried a relatively low level of inventory, which prompted them to ramp up their panel procurement However, owing to a shortage of ICs, panel glass shipment (by area) for 1H21 reached a mere 1164 Mn2
TrendForce expects two developments to take place in 2H21: First, the arrival of the traditional peak season for monitors in 3Q21 means that demand for IT panels will still remain above a certain baseline; second, there is an ongoing trend for TVs to shift towards large-sized form factors In light of these factors, although panel suppliers are expected to install significant amounts of production capacity in 4Q21 and thereby drive the glut ratio of panels to 26% for 2H21, this overall glut ratio is still within a healthy range Nevertheless, as suppliers gradually ramp up their newly installed capacities, the quarterly glut ratio of panels is expected to increase by 05% from 24% in 3Q21 to 29% in 4Q21 Not only is 29% the highest quarterly glut ratio in 2021, but it is also the second highest since 1Q20, during which the onset of COVID-19 led to an oversupply of panels at a 75% glut ratio TrendForce therefore believes that peak demand in the panel market has already passed
Regarding the glass input and shipment by area for 2H21, certain panel suppliers are expected to perform routine fab maintenance during the holiday season Even so, as Gen 105 production lines from certain suppliers and various other production lines from HKC begin ramping up capacities, the overall large-sized TFT-LCD glass input area is expected to massively increase by 59% compared to 1H21 to 1272 Mn2 in 2H21 In particular, 4Q21 will see the highest quarterly glass input by area, at 64 Mn2 As previously mentioned, the shift towards larger-sized TFs and the persistent demand for IT products are expected to propel the overall demand for large-sized TFT-LCD glass in 2H21 to 1239 Mn2, which is 14% higher than 1H21
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/04/09
As Samsung Display (SDC) decided to extend the manufacturing operations of its Korea-based Gen 85 LCD fab, and tier-two panel suppliers are still slow to reassign their production capacities from TV panels to IT panels, TrendForce expects total TV panel shipment for 2021 to reach 269 million units, which is relatively unchanged compared to 2020 levels Panel suppliers will continue to focus on large-sized TV panels this year in response to several industry-wide developments, including M&A, reduced production capacities, improved manufacturing technologies, and increased panel demand Furthermore, as the persistent price hike of TV panels continues to reduce the profit margins of TV sets, TV brands have started to gravitate towards larger, more profitable TV sizes TrendForce therefore expects the average TV panel size this year to increase by 16 inches and move towards 50 inches
TrendForce analyst Jeanette Chan indicates that the shift towards large-sized panels is an effective means of expending the production capacity of panel suppliers Case in point, due to the limited production capacity for TV panels in 1H21, not only are TV panels currently in short supply, but TV panel prices are also on the rise On the other hand, the demand for TV panels in 2H21 will depend on several key factors: first, whether the increased retail price of TV sets will hamper consumer demand; second, whether the pandemic will be effectively brought under control as more countries begin vaccinations; third, whether the impending global economic recovery will be a significant one; and finally, whether a market bubble will appear as a result of TV manufacturers’ overbooking panel orders in anticipation of potential hindrances including the price hike of materials in the upstream supply chain, the shortage of glass substrates due to such accidents as facility fires, the shortage of IC supply, and the extended shipping times
Thanks to their persistently rising production capacity and successful acquisitions, China-based BOE and CSOT, the two largest panel suppliers in the world, are expected to collectively account for about 40% of total TV panel shipment this year At the same time, BOE and CSOT are actively improving their technologies and making a push for high-end products, such as 8K, ZBD, and AM Mini LED By leveraging their improved technologies and available funds, the two companies are likely to extend their operations upstream by systematically undertaking vertical integrations
On the other hand, HKC, which is currently raising its production capacity, has garnered much attention in the market amidst the current shortage situation of TV panels Along with its Changsha-based H5 fab, which is set to kick off mass production shortly, HKC possesses four Gen 86 fabs in total By raising its production capacity and engaging in additional strategic partnerships with tier-one TV brands, HKC is expected to enter the top three ranking of panel suppliers by TV panel shipment for the first time ever, with a shipment of about 4191 million units this year, a 337% increase YoY
Taiwan-based AUO and Innolux are expected to experience YoY decreases in their shipments this year as their production capacities are relatively limited, although both companies’ efforts to optimize their products and engage in cross-industry partnerships have brought them certain competitive advantages In particular, AUO is leading the panel industry in developing not only ultra-high-end products, such as 8K+ZBD, but also Micro LED displays, whereas Innolux holds competitive advantages in product diversity and in-house ODM services It should be pointed out that these two Taiwanese companies are able to deal with the current IC shortage situation better than their competitors because their parent companies have longstanding business relationships with IC design companies
With regards to Korean suppliers, although LGD and SDC have both prolonged their LCD manufacturing operations in Korea in order to satisfy the current bullish market demand, the two companies are primarily focusing on transitioning their offerings to new products LGD will expand the OLED production capacity of its Guangzhou fab in 2Q21 as part of its effort to dominate the OLED market As for SDC, the company has dropped out of the top six ranking this year as a result of its lowered production capacity However, new TV sets featuring SDC’s QD-OLED panels are expected to officially hit the market in 4Q21, in turn driving SDC’s yearly TV panel shipment to 2 million units in 2022
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
2020/12/31
Despite previous expectations to shutter its LCD panel manufacturing operations, Samsung Display (SDC) will continue manufacturing panels in Korea, with a Gen 7 and two Gen 85 production lines operating throughout 1Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations However, in consideration of costs, technological transition schedules, and client demand for specific panel sizes, SDC is expected to retain manufacturing operations at only one Gen 85 production line in 4Q21 It should also be noted that, instead of being an indefinite extension, SDC’s continued panel manufacturing is expected to conclude by the end of 2021
TrendForce analyst Jeanette Chan estimates SDC’s extended production time to last from April 2021 to 4Q21, with 32 million units of TV panels to be shipped during the period, accounting for 12% of the market total SDC’s TV panel manufacturing is expected to provide some upward momentum for the industry as a whole, meaning global TV panel shipment for 2021 is expected to reach a similar level as the previous year
Regardless, SDC’s plan to extend LCD manufacturing will have no noticeable effect on the supply and demand of display panels in 1Q21, primarily because it had already planned to supply about 18 million TV panels and 11 million monitor panels to Samsung Electronics (SEC) in 1Q21, (though these figures will likely be reduced to 15 million and 055 million), respectively, prior to its decision to extend LCD manufacturing from April 2021 to 4Q21 The reduction in shipment to SEC will not be compensated for until April 2021
According to TrendForce’s predictive supply and demand model, which tracks large-sized LCD glass input by area and panel demand by area, the overall supply and demand of display panels in 2Q21 will, for the most part, remain in equilibrium Despite a 22% increase in glass input by area for 2Q21 due to SDC’s delayed shuttering of LCD panel production lines, the risk of component shortages will still persist during the quarter Moreover, the demand for TVs, monitors, and notebook computers will represent a certain amount of demand for display panels as well
On the whole, although SDC has announced that it will sell all of its panels produced throughout 2021 to SEC, TrendForce still forecasts an oversupply situation for 2H21, since the increased panel supply from SDC certainly represents a potential risk that may disrupt the panel industry’s supply and demand equilibrium Given the fact that SEC has historically been the largest purchaser of display panels, as the steady supply of panels from SDC increases, whether SEC will shift its panel purchasing strategies in response will remain an important point of observation for the panel market in 2021
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
