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keyword：Caroline Chen，
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2014/01/24
According to WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the global NB shipment in Q4 2013 rose 47% to 46 million units after a 102% growth in Q3 HP consecutively held the No1 place with an 8M-unit shipment while Lenovo came to the 2nd place with 74 M units (Acquired brands’ shipments are excluded)
WitsView assistant research manager Caroline Chen indicates the Q4 shipment increase was due to several factors as the year-end holiday-shopping atmosphere lifted sales, Samsung loosened its operation in the European market, and Acer was in the middle of the corporate overhaul The brands that have their markets overlapped, such as HP, Lenovo, Asus, and Toshiba, were actively restocking in hope to gain more market shares, while HP and Lenovo’s competition for the No1 title begun Dell’s promotional strategies successfully boosted its shipment in North America
In Japan, due to the raised sales tax and Windows XP suspending service, consumers and enterprises advanced the procurement, supporting the shipment performance of Japanese brands including Toshiba and Sony Moreover, the labor shortage risk at the end of January during Lunar New Year Holidays prompted some makers to ship goods early to secure the smooth distribution in January and February
Chen emphasizes despite the heating up Q4 shipment remaining a positive indicator, the retail channels’ actual result will be more crucial to determine the Q1 2014 shipment Entry-level models were the most favored of the Q4 shipment, showing consumers’ expectation about NBs focused on the price reduction Consumers’ focus on prices will challenge brands’ pricing strategies for several 2-in-1 NBs in the year to come, and as low-priced items become mainstream, the room for design will be tested The annual NB shipment drop in 2104 is projected to narrow to 2% with the touch NB likely to cut prices, while strongly-promoted Chromebook touting its appealing price possibly injects momentum to the NB market, which is worth anticipation
Q4 2013 Top Nine Brands’ Shipment (M units)
Source: WitsView
2013/12/19
2013 is undoubtedly a sluggish year for the NB industry According to the survey by WitsView, the display division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the global NB shipment for entire 2013 is around 167 million units, dipping 10% YoY, as the impacts brought by the touch function test the compatibility between software and hardware as well as consumers’ using habit, in addition to the global economic downturn 2014 is projected to see constant NB shipment declines, but the decrease can narrow to 1-2% WitsView analyst Caroline Chen emphasizes on several points to be observed as below:
Figure: 2010-2016 NB Shipment and Growth (actual and forecast)
A Major Challenge of Practicability of Touch NB
WitsView underlines a penetration rate of 102% for the touch NB in 2013 because of the excessive selling prices and software and hardware lagging behind optimization The touch function in clamshell touch NBs is rarely used as the input is mainly based on the conventional mouse, touch board, and keyboard and the application cannot work along Despite the 2-in-1 designs of single OS and duo OS (Android/Windows) both find better way to perform the touch function, it eventually leads to heavier and thicker set volumes, and software lacking practicability is the most crucial issue Next year consumers will still hesitate between a 2-in-1 NB and a conventional NB plus a tablet
Microsoft and Intel to Drive Touch NB Prices
Microsoft has announced this year the SST (Small Screen Touch) rebate program, allowing the 101” and 116” touch NBs to cut prices 101” Transformer Book launched by Asus at the end of the year, covered by the SST rebate and using the CPU of Intel Bay Trail-T series, is amazingly tagged at only $349 Microsoft and Intel’s intention to extend the touch NB rebate or cut product prices will be the key to rapidly lower ASP next year
Three Trends in Spec: High Resolution, Slimness, Power-Saving
The FHD resolution will overtake the HD at a faster pace next year, while slim panels, light-weight case materials and prismatic and cylindrical batteries all facilitate the mobility In addition, Apple’s new MacBook air 13 has battery life as long as 12 hours, suggesting more brands will make effort on the battery durability next year Those basic spec improvements are not as much promoted as the touch function but remain a direction for NBs to move forward
Acer Faces Both Internal and External Obstacles in 2014
Acer, once the second-largest NB brand, has ceded its No3 title this year and has to deal with the organization reshuffle in the company Based on WitsView’s calculation, Acer’s shipment for this year reaches around 17-18 million units, dipping 27-30% YoY Chen indicates compared to other NB brands, Acer holds a monotone product lineup, without expansion to smart phones and tablets, and lacks substitute product to support growth while the NB segment is shrinking Even Acer’s operation overhaul is constructive; its possibly delayed action may underscore the threats from other brands, especially Lenovo who is overlapping in the market with Acer and Asus who also shares the Taiwanese-background characteristic Thus, 2014 will be a challenging year for Acer
2013/10/24
According to the NB shipment survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global intelligence provider TrendForce, the global NB shipment in Q3 2013 attained 434 million units, rising 101% QoQ, the only quarter that showed two-digit growth in this year In view of the top nine brands’ shipment, it grew 63% QoQ
Based on WitsView’s analysis, the Q3 growth was supported by the stocking momentum for new models in September, including the new lineups using Haswell’s entry-level processors corei3 and Pentium and models equipped with Windows81 OS both going on sale in October After a shipment bottom in H1’13, brands pin their hopes on the new models to stir the year-end sales performance Despite a growing shipment in Q3, the quarter had a YoY -51% performance, indicating the hardware and software upgrade had difficulty to stir the demand for the entire year WitsView projects a NB shipment of 1635 million units for 2013, trimming 116% YoY
In view of individual brands, HP held the No1 NB shipment volume, reaching 82 M units, rising 158% QoQ In addition to the contribution of the bidding projects in India, the stable commercial model shipment and heating up demand for low-priced consumer models both led to its growth The brand that deserved a thumbs-up for Q3 was Dell The brand, focusing on the commercial segment, got rid of the Q2 turbulence and enjoyed a shipment of 51 million units, surging 208% QoQ Apple, after the model reshuffle in H1’13, had a shipment of 31M units in Q3, rising 48% QoQ And the brands suffered from a dim peak season were Acer, Asus, and Samsung, seeing near 10% drops for the single quarter
Looking ahead to Q4, the October sales of new models will influence the restocking momentum for Christmas holidays For the recent years, the NB sales seems less supported by the holiday shopping season, which remains a significant event for the US and European retail channels holding promotional campaigns WitsView expects a 4-6% QoQ drop for the Q4 NB shipment Lenovo’s Q4 shipment is likely to surpass that of HP and come to the top spot, seeing a 69M-unit shipment, similar to that in the previous quarter In view of the entire-year shipment, HP still secures the No1 place
The brands that are projected to see growth in Q4 are Toshiba, Asus, Apple, and Sony Asus’ growth is estimated to come from the Transformer Book T100 101” unveiled in Q4, touting as the lowest-priced Window touch hybrid NB, for only $349, and expected to compensate the gap left by the withdrawal of Netbook With the showcase of T100, Asus is challenging a target of 4 million units Samsung is expected to show the deepest drop in Q4, a 35%-45% decline from the previous quarter, as Samsung NB is merged to Samsung Mobile and strategically trimming business on concern of the overall mobile device demand, which is reflected to the Q4 shipment figure
Figure 1 Q3 NB Shipment and Q4 Shipment Forecast
Source:WitsView
2013/07/30
According to survey by WitsView, the display research division of the global market intelligence provider TrendForce, the Q2 NB shipment attained 394 million units, surging 04% QoQ, while the shipment of the top nine brands declined 07% QoQ Leading brands’ new models carrying the quad-core Haswell CPU showed unideal shipments, and the old models were digested slowly, which were two main reasons for the weaker-than-expected Q2 shipment
HP’s Q2 NB shipment attained 7 million units, surging 10% QoQ, a rare two-digit growth supported significantly by the bidding project in India Lenovo followed closely, holding a shipment of 61 million units that surged 03% QoQ Acer and Asus saw Q2 shipments surge 02% and 1%, respectively, while Toshiba was the brand that had the deepest Q2 shipment decline, 126% QoQ
Based on WitsView’s observation, brands’ shipments have faced turbulences since June and are being revised down for Q3 As we enter the 2nd half of the year, new models using the duo-core Haswell are mostly ready for Q3, and if the old models carrying Ivy Bridge are not digested before the new model launches, the new model distribution and sales will be impacted
Generally speaking, Q3 sees the demands for the back-to-school period in the US and Europe and the National Holidays in China, and Q4 sees the peak season demands for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays Hence, NB shipment has to worry about not only the old models to be digested that delay new model sales but the overwhelming new tablet and smartphones showcases in the second half of the year, and all of these are internal and external risks for the segment The Q3 growth is projected to be 7-9% due to the low basis period in Q2 and the contributions from the 2nd and 3rd –tier brands, while the Q3 growth is only 4-6% for the top nine brands
Figure 1 NB Brands’ Q2 Shipments and Growth
