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2023/01/05
TrendForce’s latest analysis of the NAND Flash market finds that most suppliers have already started to scale back production Due to this development, the vicious cycle of suppliers undercutting each other has been brought under control to some degree as well Therefore, the QoQ decline in the overall NAND Flash ASP for 1Q23 is currently projected to reach 10~15%, which is smaller than the QoQ decline for 4Q22 Regarding price trends of different NAND Flash products in 1Q23, prices of NAND Flash wafers are already at the cash cost level, so their decline will moderate sooner compared with other kinds of NAND Flash products Conversely, prices of enterprise SSDs will suffer the sharpest drop compared with other kinds of NAND Flash products because they represent a major source of inventory consumption and offer a relatively high profit margin
NAND Flash suppliers have been aggressively cutting production because the whole NAND Flash market witnessed a price collapse during 2H22 Also, compared with DRAM, NAND Flash has more price elasticity of demand Therefore, price slump will end sooner for NAND Flash than for DRAM
With regard to the client SSD segment, brands for notebook (laptop) computers have been passive in stocking up on SSDs because the demand for their devices is expected to remain fairly weak through 2023 Furthermore, the growth of the demand bits related to client SSDs will decelerate further moving into 2023, so the effect of suppliers’ production cuts on this segment is not expected to become immediately noticeable Therefore, supply will continue to outstrip demand for client SSDs In the aspect of product development, the mainstream products in the client SSD segment during 2023 are still going to be 512GB in capacity and based on the 176L 3D NAND technology Turning to cell architecture, QLC products have undergone some improvements in performance However, this also has the effect of exacerbating the decline in prices of 512GB SSDs Going forward, prices of client SSDs on the whole will keep falling as more suppliers offer higher-layer QLC products On the other hand, TrendForce has observed that some suppliers that have initiated production cuts are able to hold firm on prices of client SSDs Hence, the QoQ decline in prices of client SSDs will shrink to around 10~15% for 1Q23
In the enterprise SSD segment, buyers have repeatedly corrected down their orders since 4Q22 because server shipments have been sliding Furthermore, the built-out of data centers in China slowed down noticeably in 2022 due to the interferences caused by local COVID-19 outbreaks and government policies As a result, China’s demand for enterprise SSDs in 2022 was weaker compared with 2021 To alleviate the problem of excess inventory, suppliers made larger price concessions for 4Q22 enterprise SSD contracts in exchange for larger procurement quantities from North American buyers However, this move has taken away a portion of the demand that is reserved for 1Q23 Since the ASP of enterprise SSDs is still higher than the ASPs of various consumer NAND Flash products, suppliers still want to ramp up shipments of the former in order to maintain profitability There is a now fierce price competition in the enterprise SSD market as suppliers seek to capture more market share As a result, enterprise SSDs will also suffer the steepest price drop among NAND Flash products for 1Q23, with the QoQ decline coming to around 13~18%
Looking at the eMMC segment, the main sources of demand there are Chromebooks, TVs and networking devices Presently, these applications are not providing sufficient growth momentum to prop up eMMC prices In view of the persistently high inventory level for this kind of storage product, NAND Flash suppliers are willing to slash prices as long as there is still some room for profit TrendForce also points out that some module houses are undercutting eMMC prices in China with products made from low-priced wafers This kind of competition is exerting a certain amount of pressure on NAND Flash suppliers as well On the other hand, prices of low-capacity eMMC solutions are near the cost level, so there is not much room for further drops Going forward, the downward price pressure will concentrate on solutions that are 64GB or higher in capacity TrendForce projects that eMMC prices on the whole will drop by 10~15% QoQ for 1Q23
Turning to the UFS segment, the demand for smartphones is still in a slump, so most smartphone brands intend to keep their procurements of UFS solutions for the whole 2023 around the same amount as for 2022 Thus, the demand outlook of this segment for 2023 is lackluster Looking ahead, NAND Flash suppliers will continue to vigorously promote UFS solutions since the steady increase in the average NAND Flash content of smartphones has contributed significantly to the bit consumption of the entire NAND Flash market In particular, suppliers hope that there is sufficient price incentive to encourage Chinese smartphone brands to upgrade the storage capacity of their devices TrendForce has observed that the number of smartphone models featuring a 256GB storage capacity has risen, but these mostly belong to the high-end and flagship segments This trend will probably become more noticeable later on as smartphone brands launch new devices for 2H23 In general, the UFS segment will remain in oversupply during 1H23 TrendForce projects that prices of UFS solutions will drop by 10~15% QoQ for 1Q23
Lastly, in the NAND Flash wafer segment, module houses presently exhibit weak procurement momentum At the same time, sales have been depressed for retail SSDs and memory cards The effect of suppliers’ production cuts is expected to become more apparent in 1Q23, but strong inventory pressure is going to keep wafer prices low in the short term On the other hand, prices are now at the cash cost level for wafers that are mainstream in density NAND Flash suppliers are also selling at a loss for some large wafer transactions Going forward, suppliers will be more reluctant to accept deals that entail a loss as the overall supply-demand dynamics gradually returns to a balance TrendForce projects that contract prices of NAND Flash wafers will drop by about 3~8% QoQ for 1Q23 Compared with other categories of NAND Flash products, wafers will experience the smallest decline in 1Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/12/27
Client SSDs constituted a major driver of demand bit growth in the NAND Flash market for the past two years as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were spurring procurement activities related to working and studying from home TrendForce currently projects that the attach rate of client SSDs among notebook computers will reach 92% in 2022 and around 96% in 2023 However, the demand surge related to the pandemic is subsiding, and the recent headwinds in the global economy have caused a demand freeze in the wider consumer electronics market Hence, among the major application segments of the NAND Flash market, client SSDs are going to experience the most significant demand slowdown This, in turn, will constrain demand bit growth as well TrendForce projects that for the period from 2022 to 2025, the YoY growth rate of NAND Flash demand bits will remain below 30%
The average NAND Flash content of client SSDs has already surpassed 500GB this year Quotes for 512GB SSDs have fallen sharply and come to a level that is roughly comparable to the quotes that were given for 256GB SSDs half-a-year ago In fact, quotes for 512GB SSDs are also near the level for HDDs with the same capacity On the other hand, upgrading to 1TB or higher for notebook SSDs could be challenging for PC OEMs mainly because the licensing fee for the Windows OS has a positive correlation with device specifications Therefore, an increase in SSD capacity will raise the cost of a whole notebook computer With PC OEMs being less keen on adopting SSDs that are 1TB or higher, growth in the average NAND Flash content of client SSDs will also be more limited in the future
Regarding lower-capacity storage solutions for notebook computers, Microsoft is encouraging PC OEMs to adopt UFS solutions for entry-level notebook computers that come with 128GB of storage There are two reasons behind this development First, the market for 128GB SSDs are gradually shrinking Second, compared with SATA, UFS has a price advantage and a comparable performance in terms of data transfer speed In the long run, UFS solutions could replace low-capacity client SSDs for notebook storage However, SSDs have experienced a steep price drop recently, so their price difference with UFS solutions has gotten smaller Furthermore, there are no PC CPU platforms that natively support the faster data transfer speed offered by UFS 31 For now, PC OEMs believe there is no need to make the switch since UFS solutions still lack a notable price advantage Opportunities for adopting UFS solutions will only become more apparent when there is a clear price advantage and native support is available from CPU platforms
Enterprise SSDs Will Succeed as Major Driver of Demand Bit Growth in Future
The momentum of NAND Flash demand varies for different applications For instance, demand bit growth has not been as rapid for notebook SSDs as it has been for smartphone storage solutions This in part has to do with notebook cameras being mainly used for video streaming rather than shooting photos and videos that have a high image quality TrendForce projects that NAND Flash demand bits related to client SSDs will increase by 43% YoY for 2022 and 116% YoY for 2023 Turning to the YoY growth rate of the average NAND Flash content of client SSDs, it is projected to reach 182% for 2022 and then shrink to 96% for 2023 Eventually, enterprise SSDs will take over from client SSDs as a major driver of demand bit growth in the global NAND Flash market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/11/23
Market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that the whole NAND Flash market was severely weakened by plummeting demand in 3Q22 Because shipments of end products including consumer electronics and servers had been below expectations, the overall NAND ASP fell by 183% QoQ Furthermore, the general economic outlook remained pessimistic, so enterprises across many sectors started to scale back their capital expenditure plans and halted the momentum of their procurement activities Due to this development, the problem of excess inventory eventually spread to NAND Flash suppliers The pressure on suppliers to make sales was ratcheted up dramatically According to TrendForce’s investigation, NAND Flash bit shipments fell by 67% QoQ for 3Q22, and the overall NAND Flash ASP also kept sliding On account of the unfavorable market situation, the NAND Flash industry recorded a total revenue of around US$1371 billion for 3Q22 The QoQ revenue decline reached as much as 243%
The ranking of NAND Flash suppliers by revenue saw two notable changes for 3Q22 First, SK Group moved down to third place as it suffered the largest revenue drop among suppliers Its revenue slipped by 298% QoQ to US$254 billion mainly due to the significant deterioration of the demand for PCs and smartphones Its subsidiary Solidigm was also affected by the slowdown in server procurements Previously, servers had a fairly stable demand situation compared with other kinds of end products However, server demand eventually buckled in 3Q22 as result of enterprises cutting capital expenditure and undergoing a period of inventory correction Compared with 2Q22, SK Group (that encompasses SK hynix and Solidigm) posted a drop of 111% in bit shipments and an even steeper decline of more than 20% in ASP
The other notable change in the 3Q22 ranking was Kioxia The supplier returned to second place in terms of revenue and market share because it was able to make a gradual recovery from the material contamination incident that had happened earlier this year Even though Kioxia did suffer a significant decline in its ASP due to the slumping demand for consumer electronics, its bit shipments were bolstered by the seasonal stock-up activities of its clients in the smartphone industry and rose by 235% QoQ Taken altogether, Kioxia’s revenue dipped by just 01% QoQ to US$283 billion
Owing to Downturn in Both Quantity and Price, Micron Posted Largest Drop in NAND Flash Bit Shipments with QoQ Decline Reaching 21%
Other NAND Flash suppliers including Samsung, Western Digital and Micron all posted a considerable QoQ decline in revenue for 3Q22 because of a drop in both price and shipment quantity Again, weakening demand for end products was one of the major reasons behind these suppliers’ poor performances Regarding Samsung, the supplier saw a drop in its enterprise SSD shipments during 3Q22 as server demand slowed down This was a sharp negative turn compared with the situation in 2Q22, when orders related to data centers were propping up enterprise SSD procurements Samsung’s revenue fell by 281% QoQ to US$43 billion for 3Q22
Western Digital’s NAND Flash business were under enormous pressure in 3Q22 as it recorded a QoQ decline in bit shipments and a sharp drop in its ASP All in all, Western Digital’s revenue fell by 283% QoQ to US$172 billion Turning to Micron, an analysis of its memory revenue performance, which encompasses both DRAM and NAND Flash, has revealed that the only the application segment that did well in 3Q22 was automotive memory solutions Micron actually posted a new high for its revenue from automotive memory solutions in that quarter Conversely, its revenue figures related to other memory-related applications, including NAND Flash solutions for data centers, industrial IoT, etc, all exhibited a QoQ drop And because of the poor results for the rest of application segments, Micron’s NAND Flash revenue as a whole registered a steep QoQ decline of 262% to US$169 billion
NAND Revenue Will Show a QoQ Drop Again for 4Q22 as Inventory Pressure Continues to Mount and Production Cuts Bring No Immediate Relief
Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce believes that with the notable exception of Samsung, most suppliers will be more cautious in planning output following their respective earnings calls for the third quarter To restore balance to supply-demand dynamics as quickly as possible, suppliers will be taking measures such as cutting wafer input and decelerating the pace of technology migration However, the usual demand surge in connection with the year-end holiday sales has failed to materialize this year, and NAND Flash buyers’ passiveness is causing inventory to further accumulate on the supply side As for production cuts, their effect on the market will not be apparent for at least a quarter Hence, prices of NAND Flash products will still be under significant downward pressure in 4Q22, and TrendForce has widened the projected QoQ decline in contract prices to 20~25% in its latest forecast With high inventory and falling prices serving as constraining factors, the NAND Flash industry is also forecasted to post a QoQ decline of almost 20% in its total revenue for 4Q22
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/10/03
According to a TrendForce investigations, memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers In response to the aforementioned situation, Micron announced last week that it would cut production of DRAM and NAND Flash, becoming the first major memory manufacturer to officially reduce its capacity utilization plan In terms of NAND Flash, the market situation is more severe than that of DRAM As the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen to their cash cost and is approaching the periphery of selling at a loss for various manufacturers, Kioxia also announced that it will reduce NAND Flash capacity utilization by 30% from October on the heels of Micron’s announcement
In terms of DRAM, current contract pricing remains higher than the total production cost of various mainstream suppliers Therefore, compared with NAND Flash, it remains to be seen whether there will be a significant reduction in production In addition to mentioning the slight reduction in capacity utilization in this sector currently, Micron mainly emphasized its sharp downward revision of capital expenditures in 2023 and that the annual growth of DRAM production bits next year will only be around 5% TrendForce believes, according to Micron, to actualize such conservative bit growth means that there is still room for a significant downward revision in capacity utilization and the extent to which Micron's subsequent production reductions are implemented remains to be seen
In terms of NAND Flash, Micron originally planned to gradually increase its proportion of 232-layer products from 4Q22 However, with the implementation of the company’s decision to reduce production, Micron's mainstream processes are estimated to remain dominated by 176-layer products in 2023, while wafer starts in legacy processes will also fall Kioxia and WDC originally planned to migrate to 162-layer products starting in 4Q22 but WDC slowed CapEx in 2023 When funding is hard to come by and demand visibility poor, the proportion of 162-layer products will fall greatly and the company’s original plan to replace mainstream 112-layer products in 2023 will not be achieved
More manufactures limiting bit output cannot be ruled out as only large-scale production reduction can reverse supply/demand imbalance in 2023
After analyzing 2023 supply and demand in the memory market, due to a conservative demand outlook, DRAM and NAND Flash look to be greatly oversupplied in each quarter and inventory pressure will continue to accelerate in 1H23 In the DRAM sector, after Micron led the way to announce a DRAM production reduction plan that will fall far below historical levels of supply-side bit growth, the 2023 DRAM Sufficiency Ratio will contract from the 116% previously forecast by TrendForce to less than 10%, helping to alleviate rapidly deteriorating inventory pressure However, more suppliers must be relied on to join in the actual reduction of DRAM production in the future in order to reverse the supply and demand imbalance next year
It is imperative to reduce bit supply in the NAND Flash field due to the large number of competitors and the fact that manufacturers have yet to encroach on the physical limits of manufacturing Considering that supply-side bit growth from Micron and Kioxia has been downgraded, the 2023 NAND Flash Sufficiency Ratio will drop significantly from the original estimate of 101% to 56% Under the expectation that more NAND Flash suppliers will join the ranks reducing production due to loss considerations, inventory pressure is expected to ease in the 2Q23, while price declines are expected to diminish in 2H23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/26
According to TrendForce research, NAND Flash is currently oversupplied Buyers started focusing on destocking and greatly reducing purchases in 2H22 while sellers began offering rock-bottom prices to shore up purchase orders, causing wafer pricing to drop by 30-35% in 3Q22 All types of NAND Flash end products remain weak and factory inventory increased rapidly, resulting in a 15-20% decline in NAND Flash pricing in 4Q22 Most manufacturers’ NAND Flash product sales will also officially cross over into loss territory before the end of this year, which means that certain suppliers under pressure from operating at a loss will likely reduce production as a way to reduce losses
In terms of client SSDs, since purchasing demand in 2H22 is far less than that in 1H22, PC brands currently feel pessimistic regarding demand next year and reducing inventory is a top priority, causing suppliers to increase client SSD price flexibility to surge shipments PCIe 40 SSD shipments continued to rise this year and more suppliers launched 176-layer products to increase the penetration rate of this interface In particular, 512GB quickly became the focus of supply Coupled with a large supply of QLC SSDs, the supply side generally latched onto the 512GB capacity for fixed-volume or two quarter consolidated price negotiation strategies, intensifying price competition at this capacity The decline in PC client SSD pricing is estimated to broaden to 15~20% in 4Q22
In terms of Enterprise SSDs, purchase volume has also declined due to the expectation that server shipments will fall in 4Q22 However, though demand for consumer products has dropped significantly, manufacturers are eager to expand sales of enterprise SSDs Notably, US manufacturers began providing 176-layer products to clinch market share and Solidigm released a SK hynix 128-layer enterprise SSD for customer verification At the same time, Kioxia is eagerly partnering with North American cloud service providers for PCIe 40 SSD Price competition among suppliers is bound to intensify as more products enter the market Thus, the price of enterprise SSD is forecast to drop by 15-20% in 4Q22
In terms of eMMC, sluggish demand for chromebooks and TVs is cultivating a negative attitude among buyers towards eMMC stocking As for demand visibility of networking products, visibility is optimistically expected to extend to the end of the year but, considering sluggish overall demand, only limited support for eMMC demand can be provided by networking products alone With weak demand for consumer products and sustained growth in supply and output, inventory pressure forced manufacturers to offer low prices in 3Q22 for fixed-volume sales in 2H22 to stimulate buyers' willingness to buy However, buyers’ order requirements generally trend towards small quantities across several batches This will lead to a decline of eMMC pricing until the end of the year and eMMC prices are estimated to fall by approximately 13-18% in 4Q22
In terms of UFS, the main application of UFS which is the smartphone market remains weak and traditional peak season sales has fallen short of past performance Brands retain high inventory levels in both whole devices and components and their willingness to buy UFS has decreased Therefore, manufacturers began looking for fixed-volume shipments starting in 3Q22, aggressively attracting transactions with branded companies though low prices and reaching supply agreements with certain Chinese brands in succession However, since the market is generally pessimistic regarding demand next year, the status of manufacturer transactions has been poor and inventory pressure has not eased significantly Therefore, manufacturers will continue to intensify price incentives to stimulate stocking momentum UFS pricing in 4Q22 is estimated to drop by approximately 13~18%, with further slips a possibility
In terms of NAND Flash wafers, even though some module makers have experienced slight pressure relief after several quarters of inventory adjustment, the overall market situation is still pessimistic, so attitudes towards stocking is extremely passive Demand for products such as SSDs, memory cards, and drives at the retail end is stagnant as consumer products continue its slump and fail to become a force supporting wafer pricing The supply side continues to increase wafer supply and a slowdown in the pace of process migration to higher layers has not been realized Since a downward trend in pricing is inevitable, manufacturers are forced to accelerate process migration to optimize cost structure In addition, manufacturers have been slashing prices since 3Q22, resulting in wafer contract pricing quickly approaching factories’ cash cost TrendForce observes, against the framework of a perfectly competitive market for NAND Flash, suppliers intend to accelerate wafer price drops, and NAND Flash wafer pricing in 4Q22 is estimated to fall 20-25% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
