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keyword：Caroline Chen，
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2021/03/02
Global sales of NEV (new energy vehicles, which include both BEV and PHEV) skyrocketed in the final two months of 2020, with various models setting historical sales records, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations TrendForce estimates total NEV sales for 2020 at 29 million units, a 43% increase YoY, and further expects yearly sales to reach 39 million units in 2021 However, as the current shortage of automotive chips has had a considerable impact on the auto industry, some uncertainties still exist in the forecast of EV sales
With regards to the BEV market, Tesla primarily focused on marketing the Model 3 as its key model for 2020 The automaker took leadership position with a 245% market share last year, while the Model Y is expected to be key to securing its continued leadership in 2021 primarily because China has issued a sales permit allowing the Model Y to be exempt from purchase tax Furthermore, Tesla was able to catch its competitors off guard by discounting Model Y prices by 30% on the first day of 2021 Volkswagen took second place in the rankings due to not only the excellent market reception of the e-Golf, but also the remarkable sales figures set by the ID3 in 2H20, which helped Volkswagen stabilize its market share Incidentally, as the ID4 is set to hit the market later on, it is expected to make meaningful contributions to Volkswagen’s overall EV sales in 2021 instead of 2020
BYD derives its competitive advantage from having a comprehensive model lineup The Chinese company comfortably took third place with a 64% market share Conversely, fourth-ranked Wuling Hongguang became the dark horse of 2020 by fielding a single EV model, the Hongguang Mini Not only was the Hongguang Mini attractively priced, but the Chinese government also made a heavy push for NEV sales in China's rural areas Both of these factors allowed the Hongguang Mini to become one of the global top sellers within six months of its release Hot on the heels of Wuling Hongguang is Renault, which took fifth place in the ranking Renault was able to score a 56% market share thanks to its longstanding best seller ZOE Although other models, including the Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Kona, also posted remarkable sales performances last year, their respective automakers did not place on the top five list because these automakers each had total EV sales that fell short of the five automakers on the list
On the other hand, the top PHEV manufacturers were neck and neck in terms of ranking by market share BMW and Mercedes-Benz each possessed a 13% market share, followed by Volvo with 12% Fourth-ranked Volkswagen and fifth-ranked Audi registered a 10% market share and 6% market share, respectively
TrendForce indicates that China and Europe are perfect examples of EV markets propelled by government policies For instance, European automakers have adopted a proactive position to expand their EV lineups as a result of the stringent emissions standards set by the EU, and these automakers have subsequently been aiming to achieve zero carbon emissions or increase the share of EVs in their total vehicle sales Apart from China and Europe, the US is yet another market where policies may have a positive effect on EV sales After winning the 2020 presidential election, Biden is now set to launch his clean energy proposal, which includes replacing the US government’s existing fleet with EVs, removing the previously set ceiling on federal tax credits for EV purchases, and offering consumer tax incentives to replacing their conventional fossil fuel vehicles with EVs, among other actions If these proposed actions were eventually implemented, TrendForce believes they would be able to drive up EV sales in the US
2020/11/27
Thanks to subsidies by various governments worldwide, the New Energy Vehicle market, including BEVs and PHEVs, maintained a positive growth in sales performance despite the major downturn experienced by the overall automotive market, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Total New Energy Vehicle sales for 2020 are expected to reach 24 million units, a 198% increase YoY
TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen indicates that governmental subsidies have been the primary driver for the growth of New Energy Vehicles in 2020, as China, Germany, the UK, and France authorized subsidies for automotive purchases in an attempt to stimulate their domestic economies These subsidies for the most part pertained to environmentally friendly New Energy Vehicles, with BEVs yielding the highest subsidies As governments successively withdraw subsidies each year, rising subsidies have thus become a significant attraction for consumers, especially in certain countries where governments provide enough subsidies to cover the difference in price between EVs and gasoline vehicles
With regards to regional markets, most of the upwards momentum for New Energy Vehicles stems from Europe More specifically, the New Energy Vehicles markets in Germany, the UK, and France are expected to collectively reach sales of about 630,000 units in 2020, a 163% increase YoY, while the Chinese market may potentially see its sales performance substantially recovering at the end of the year, with total yearly sales in China reaching a 6% increase YoY
Region-wise, China and Europe are expected to maintain their status as the primary drivers of New Energy Vehicles sales in 2021 The former has instituted various policies to stimulate both EV sales and charging station build-out In particular, Shanghai has issued extremely strict restrictions against cars with out-of-town license plates However, the city has also given special permit for cars with New Energy Vehicle license plates to be exempt from the restrictions Shanghai’s policy is one example out of many other policies by China to stimulate New Energy Vehicle sales on a large scale via localized actions As such, the growth of China’s New Energy Vehicle sales is expected to once again exceed the global average in 2021
On the other hand, governmental subsidies for New Energy Vehicles in the European market, which is the other market aside from China driving up the overall penetration rate of New Energy Vehicles, are likely to last throughout 2021 This, in addition to the 100% implementation of the new CO2 emission standards stipulating that automakers that fail to meet said standards will be penalized at a significant fine, will propel the development of the New Energy Vehicle market in Europe In reality, several automakers have purchased carbon emission credits from New Energy Vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla in order to steer clear of carbon emission penalty fines, although this strategy is not sustainable in the long run In any case, by the end of 2020, the European New Energy Vehicle market will have seen the announcement and release of multiple models, and automakers will make an even more aggressive attempt to saturate the market For the consumer, the proliferation of New Energy Vehicles means that consumers are no longer faced with the lopsided choice between disproportionately few EV models and the vast ocean of conventional gasoline vehicles Instead, consumers will be able to choose from a wide variety of EV models within the same price segments going forward
In terms of the overall EVs market, Tesla took leadership positions in nearly all regional markets by sales in 2020 The industry will likely experience substantial growth in 2021 owing to the release of EV models by various mainstream automakers, as well as the delivery of Model Y vehicles from Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory Global sales for 2021 are expected to reach 34 million units, a 397% increase YoY and a return to accelerated growth On the other hand, the rapid growth of the New Energy Vehicle market will also provide growth opportunities for the various supply chains of EV components and charging station components
2020/07/31
The share of connected cars is steadily rising in the new car market, owing to the rapid development of V2X in recent years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations As well, 3GPP, the standards-setting organization for telecommunications protocols, announced on July 3rd that it had approved Stage 3 of 5G Release 16 (R16) This marks the completion of 5G Phase 2, after which the industry will see a rising number of supported 5G applications, including autonomous driving This represents a further expansion of V2X applications As such, the number of connected cars sold in the new car market is projected to reach about 74 million units in 2025, an 80% penetration rate
TrendForce analyst Caroline Chen indicates that the rapid surge in the penetration rate of connected cars likely takes place because various governments are aligning V2X, connected cars, and smart vehicles as vital national development priorities by officially supporting the growth of the V2X industry Another factor is that automakers, telecom operators, and third-party service providers have all set their sights on the potential profitability of the massive data and related commercial applications that accompany the widespread adoption of V2X
Global auto sales volume is projected to plummet by 206% in 2020, with 5G V2X applications as a potential highlight for the industry
In addition to improving the V2X user experience, 5G integration also extends V2X functionalities from existing emergency assistance and media entertainment functions to driver safety 5G-based V2X enables ADAS- and ADS-based driver safety by interconnecting various driving-related data points, including vehicle telemetry, road conditions, and driver conditions, with the cloud Furthermore, self-driving logistics vehicles, which are highly dependent on long-range remote driving, and self-driving truck fleets can both enter commercial applications sooner than expected thanks to 5G-based V2X
According to TrendForce, 5G is an indispensable part of smart vehicle development, as it serves as the main driver for commercial opportunities in the automotive software and hardware sectors, although practical issues, including infrastructure (such as base stations and RSU), cost, vehicle design, and testing/certification, still need to be resolved Since the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to be successfully contained, global auto sales volume in 2020 is projected to decrease by a massive 206% At the same time, the market is placing high hopes on 5G V2X This technology, along with its emergent applications, will likely become the driving force revitalizing the automotive industry
2019/10/01
The latest figures provided by the global research firm TrendForce show that car sales in the US for 2019 are projected to slide by 3% YoY China’s car sales for the same year are also projected to drop by 7% YoY The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China has taken a serious toll on the global automotive market, which is now facing a continuous decline in sales Now struggling under a negative market cycle, major car makers have proceeded to cut costs through layoffs On the other hand, they are also directing more of their resources into developing functions pertaining to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and automated driving systems (ADS) for their upcoming vehicle models
Caroline Chen, TrendForce analyst for the global automotive market, pointed out that the automotive industry has entered a major transformational period, where vehicles themselves are undergoing revolutionary technological changes “The automotive supply chain, which was previously very much closed off to new entrants, is starting to open up for non-traditional players,” said Chen “For instance, companies in Taiwan’s well-established ICT supply chain now have a golden opportunity to venture into the automotive market and carve out a niche for themselves”
Traditional suppliers can also ride on this wave of changes and climb up the value chain “Again, looking at Taiwan, there are parts suppliers that have the potential to leave the aftermarket and become manufacturers of factory-installed products,” said Chen “They can make this transition by offering new functions with low market penetration in vehicles The emerging areas where suppliers can make significant contributions include electric vehicles, smart cockpit, ADAS, and ADS”
According to Chen’s further analysis, ADAS technologies for safety-critical operations constitute a strong selling point for new vehicle models Moreover, the New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) of the US, China, and Europe have included more and more ADAS subsystems into their review benchmarks This, in turn, has led to the diffusion of ADAS technologies from the high-end to the mid-range segment of the vehicle market At the same time, consumers have gradually familiarize themselves with how and when to use driver assistance functions
However, Chen also stressed that mandatory regulations instituted by government agencies worldwide are ultimately the main force that drives the market penetration of ADAS Take autonomous emergency braking (AEB) as an example The adoption of this particular active safety system is expected to become widespread in the near future as the regulatory bodies in the EU, Japan, and the US have all decided that it must be a standard feature for new vehicle models by the 2020-2022 period
As for the highly anticipated self-driving technologies, they have already started on the path of commercialization this year; and their deployment will expand noticeably in 2020 In the near future, most of the self-driving vehicles will be commercial vehicles operating under the business models of taxi/ride-hailing services, trucking/logistics services, and closed-loop transportation networks
Chen noted that both ADAS and ADS require various types of sensors for detecting obstacles on the road Thus, the number of sensors in a vehicle will increase in tandem with the rising demand for driver assistance and self-driving functions Among the various sensors installed in vehicles, the millimeter-wave radar (mmWave radar) is central to the operation of many subsystems TrendForce currently forecasts that the total quantity of mmWave radar modules installed across all vehicles worldwide will increase by 158% YoY in 2020
2019/04/16
Global research institute TrendForce asserts in its latest Global Automotive Market Decode for 1Q report that the global automotive market scale is predicted to reach 944 million in shipments 2019, a 08% decrease compared to 2018 Despite this drop in market scale, car manufacturers are hoping to spur market development by turning to the electric vehicle market Electric vehicle shipments are predicted to arrive at 515 million in 2019, reaching a YoY growth of 28% YoY growth of new energy vehicles alone ( excluding hybrid electric vehicles) is expected to hit 51%
TrendForce Analyst Caroline Chen points out that the 2019 automotive market was impacted by the US-China trade dispute, causing China and US cars sales in the five major regional markets to slide non-stop Western Europe and Japan held steady and only experienced marginal drops , while India continued to ride a still-strong wave of economic growth and exhibited positive growth
Further analysis by Caroline shows that negotiations are still underway amidst the US-China trade dispute, and both sides have declared to lay down punitive tariffs momentarily Yet the longer the trade-dispute drags on, the more the car market suffers in 2019, and the number of countries impacted will continue to rise The reason for this is the close relationship between car sales and a country's economy: If consumers become pessimistic about future employment, salary growth and total economy, then doubts and deferred consumption will follow upon considering new car purchases and replacements
Returning to global car market development: Car makers are proactively carrying out development of electric vehicles and speeding up rollouts of new car models in anticipation of global energy-saving and emission-reducing trends, as well as the policies implemented by various countries Car makers are leaning towards presenting electric vehicles as a brand new product series with a strategic eye to consolidate their position in the electric vehicle market Electric vehicle development is further helped by the expansion of cell suppliers' production capacity, continually falling prices and localization of cell production
Caroline explains that policies will play a major role in influencing electric vehicles development this year China and the US are both hoping to push towards free market competition for electric vehicles, and have begun to reduce subsidies and raise the bar Though these acts are sure to cause some disturbances in the car market, it will exert a positive influence and help clear out the riffraff Other indicators of electric car development is the speed and scale at which charging stations are distributed, grid load and power stability In consideration of all these factors, we at TrendForce predict that electric vehicle penetration rates will arrive at 55% in 2019, and continue to rise up to 13%~15% in 2023
For more information on the global car market and its development, please refer to TrendForce's newest Global Automotive Market Decode Report: https://wwwtrendforcecom/Global-Automotive-Market-Decode
