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keyword：Jason Tsai，
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2016/06/23
Sony made its widely anticipated PlayStation VR (PS VR) available for pre-order this month following the releases of HTC’s Vive and Oculus’s Rift So far, the market reception towards PS VR has been very good as Japan and several other regions have reported that their pre-order shipments were sold out immediately after the announcement Global market research firm TrendForce expects PS VR to generate another huge wave of VR device shipments this year If the branded vendors are able to ensure sufficient supply, TrendForce forecasts that shipments of VR devices (excluding mobile-based products) will grow at a CAGR of 535% from 9 million units this year to 50 million units in 2020
“While sales from various branded vendors have been brisk, this year’s VR device shipments will be mainly influenced by the supply side of the market,” said Jason Tsai, wearable device analyst for TrendForce “Branded vendors were overly conservative in stocking up their inventories before the market releases of their products They are now seeing the product demand far outstripping the supply and will have to adjust their inventories in the next two quarters, or else the undersupply situation in the VR device market will likely persist to the second half of 2017”
Moreover, software is fast becoming the largest opportunity in the VR industry TrendForce estimates that the total value of the VR market in 2020 will surpass US$70 billion, of which nearly 60% will come from software “The strong sales performances of various devices in the VR market will attract more new entrants from the hardware field,” said Tsai “Many software developers will also enter the market in the next two to three years to help expand the range of VR applications”
PS VR is projected to take 67% of the device market share this year with about 6 million units shipped
TrendForce’s latest analysis indicates that PS VR will overwhelm its competitors this year, taking 67% of the global VR device market with about 6 million units shipped In comparison, Oculus will ship 23 million units of Rift while HTC will ship just 700,000 units of Vive The cumulative shipments of PlayStation 4 (PS4) gaming consoles are expected to exceed 50 million units by the end of this year PS VR will therefore benefit from the large PS4 user base as they are potential buyers Moreover, first-time buyers of VR devices will find the combined package of PS4 and PS VR more economical HTC’s Vive offers higher performance capabilities, but its average selling price is quite high PS VR on the other hand is priced for general consumers looking for new forms of interactive entertainment and recreational activities with family and friends PS VR is also an attractive choice for hardcore gamers because Sony and third-party developers will launch many Triple-A VR titles for the device in the near future
2016/01/13
One of the most talked-about technologies shown at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas is virtual reality (VR) Headset devices such as HTC’s VIVE, Oculus’s Rift, Samsung’s Gear VR 2 and Sony’s PlayStation VR drew huge crowds that wanted to try them out Jason Tsai, wearable device analyst for TrendForce, said that CES and the next month’s Mobile World Congress (MWC) are two important events for VR device developers to showcase their products before their market launch The media coverage during the CES significantly raised the awareness of the technology and created a positive environment for the growth of the VR industry
Tsai’s assessment of vendors’ offerings at CES finds that Sony has the lead in the competition In addition to having spent a considerable time working on PlayStation VR, Sony has a strong advantage in resources needed to develop VR gaming PlayStation VR moreover is an attractive addition for gamers who already own or are going to buy a PS4 console
Taking purchasing costs and incentives into consideration, TrendForce expects PlayStation VR to lead in VR device shipments this year HTC VIVE and Oculus Rift, which require buyers to upgrade their PCs, will follow in second and third places Shipments of VIVE and Rift will not pick up significantly until 2017, when consumers begin replacing their old PCs with new ones compatible with these headsets
Tsai also noted that pricing will be the most critical factor affecting each vendor’s shipment performance Consumers’ willingness to buy VR devices will be determined by the price of the main headset as well as the prices of accessories, including controller sticks and gamepads
2015/12/04
Consumers’ relentless pursuit for richer audiovisual experience has propelled the popularity of virtual reality (VR) devices and drawn in more companies to invest in this market Furthermore, the competition among the increasing number of players will bring about diversification and growth of VR applications According to the latest estimation by global market research firm TrendForce, the total value of VR market (including hard- and software) will reach US$67 billion in 2016 and will proceed to skyrocket to US$70 billion in 2020
“These explosive growth projections actually do not sufficiently reflect just how hot the VR industry is right now,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce wearable device analyst “The figures do not include the value of non-commercial uses of VR technology For example, the industry is currently pushing the development of free software and do-it-yourself apps While these projects do not immediately generate revenue for the developers, they have a vital role in the promotion market growth and innovations”
Consumers’ exposure to VR content will increase with the help of social media such as Facebook and YouTube
Tsai pointed out that the VR industry is at its infancy, so companies behind major social media platforms such as Facebook and YouTube will provide software tools and support services for the production of VR videos People’s habit of creating, uploading and sharing their works on these platforms will result in the growth of user-generated VR content that will in turn attract more consumers In sum, social sharing will make VR technologies more influential and more tied to social media platforms
Other media and entertainment organizations are experimenting with VR technologies as well National Basketball Association, for example, has introduced VR broadcasting this season to provide fans at home an experience akin to watching games live at the arena News media giant New York Times has also launched, NYT VR, a free smartphone app that provides 360 degree, VR news videos NYT VR is a non-commercial venture that uses this emerging technology to get consumers of news more personally involved in reported events and issues
Tsai added: “The development of the VR industry is not solely based on wearable devices launched by major hardware vendors such as Sony, Oculus and HTC Much of the growth drive also comes from independent developers that contribute innovative apps to the VR industry Their market value is not often reflected in the data Since making apps does not have a high entry barrier, there has been a proliferation of non-commercial software made by students, independent developers and content providers Instead of being guided by immediate commercial interests, they aim to attract consumers’ attention with innovative products Major device vendors are therefore aggressively courting these independent developers Collaboration with academic institutions is also another way for the industry to diversify the VR content to create more value
2015/11/18
The market for wearable devices (also known as wearables) has maintained a certain growth level in recent years, though device vendors have not experienced a boom in demand as they would hope The total wearable device shipments in 2015 are estimated at 681 million units, according to global market research firm TrendForce In 2016, annual wearable shipments are expected to grow 64% to above 112 million units This projected growth rate mainly reflects the short base period
“Apple Watch has not been able to significantly lift the overall demand for smartwatches,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce wearable device analyst “Smart bracelet remains dominant in the wearables market The industry is betting on wearable virtual reality (VR) technologies to be the main growth driver for next year Hence, a lot of attention has been paid to several VR devices that are set to launch at the start of 2016”
Smart bracelets focus on functionality whereas smartwatches rely on brand names
Smartwatch vendors so far have only been able to leverage their brand names to sell their devices The market positioning of smartwatches is still unclear and provides too few reasons for consumers to buy them Apple Watch is currently the only smartwatch that has exceeded 10 million sets shipped this year Nonetheless, Tsai noted that sales of Apple Watch have fallen short of expectations since its launch over six months ago TrendForce therefore has lowered the projected annual shipments of Apple Watch for 2015 from 15 million to 12 million sets Next year’s annual shipments are expected to reach 20 million sets
“Smartwatches will become more appealing if vendors can aggressively market two or three device-specific features that consumers would find valuable,” Tsai pointed out “Apple, for instance, has successfully used its brand name to build an initial user base for its smartwatch The next step is to capture consumers who want value for their money, or else Apple’s smartwatches will remain only as collectibles for Apple fans”
Smart bracelets, on the other hand, have staked out a clear position in the wearables market as fitness and sleep trackers “Consumers buy them because of their functionality,” said Tsai “And this is why Fitbit, which is a lesser-known brand, is able to pull ahead of the pack of competing wearable vendors and beat several major brands in market share”
TrendForce estimates that annual smart bracelet shipments for 2016 will grow to 45 million units, greatly surpassing projected shipment figure of smartwatches for the same period, which will be around 32 million units
VR devices will drive the wearables market next year and become the focus of the industry
The shares of smartwatches and smart bracelets in the overall wearable market will unlikely change significantly in 2016 even if vendors such as Apple, Fitbit and Xiaomi are able ship tens of millions of their respective devices The next hot application segment in the wearables market will be VR devices Tsai noted that the annual shipments of smart headwear is set to hit 8 million units this year and will soar to 27 million units next year This explosive growth is heavily attributed to the rising demand for wearable VR technologies
At the start of next year, major vendors such as HTC, Oculus and Sony will launch their VR devices, which are expected to bring over US$60 billion in annual sales As this market rapidly emerges, it draws in powerful players in the tech industry For example, Samsung has already invested in FOVE, which develops VR devices that can track eye movements Chinese tech giant Tencent has also recently announced its own VR project TrendForce anticipates that the competition will become very heated next year with the entries of new participants and products
2015/08/04
The introduction of the Apple Watch did not create takeoff growth opportunities in the wearable device market Consequently, vendors are working on other attractive products, and virtual reality (VR) currently stands out among the wearable technologies that are under development Few VR devices have been shipped this year, but the latest data from Topology Research Institute (TRI), a division of TrendForce, estimates that the VR device shipment volume will soar to 14 million units in 2016
“VR hardware’s market positioning is clearer than smartwatches,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce’s wearable device analyst “Since VR device’s strongest feature is providing users with an immersive audiovisual experience, its early application will be related to gaming”
Tsai also stated that the main part of a VR device’s draw is the abundance of audiovisual contents, and VR games cost less resources to produce than VR movies First-person games in particular can be ported to VR devices with some modifications The relatively low costs and minimal time requirement thus will be strong incentives for game developers as they will become major content providers for VR hardware
Tsai added that vendors could initially position VR devices as gaming accessories Though the gaming accessories market is not as large as other consumer electronics markets (ie mobile devices), it has a specific group of consumers Vendors will therefore be able to capture a stable user base early on Using the eight million first-year sales figures of Microsoft Kinect in 2010 as a base for comparison, TrendForce believes VR devices will enjoy better sales results in 2016 Besides attracting consumers with novel and immersive gaming experience, VR-based products are also being aggressively promoted by tech and entertainment giants, including Disney, HTC, NVIDIA, Oculus, Samsung and Sony
In the future, the VR industry will draw in more resources when all its participants have achieved concrete sales results and made profit These investments will lead to more diverse content services for VR hardware, and the industry by then will become hot as its growth gradually accelerates and its previously small market expands
