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keyword：Jason Tsai，
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2020/07/23
Total shipment of AR/VR devices is expected to reach 512 million units in 2020, according to TrendForce Thanks to the release of various glasses-like AR/VR devices, the AR/VR devices market is likely to rapidly expand from 2021 to 2022, with a forecasted shipment of 432 million units in 2025 This market is projected to reach a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 531% from 2020 to 2025
TrendForce analyst Jason Tsai indicates that the accelerating growth of the AR/VR devices market can be attributed to aggressive product strategies from branded manufacturers In particular, glasses-like AR/VR devices are projected to become a popular choice with which companies will expand their presence in the consumer electronics market An increasing number of brands are expected to release new products between 2021 and 2022 For instance, Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, among other companies, may release glasses-like AR/VR devices and in turn expand the market even further
Jason Tsai also states that, given the consumer electronics market’s high demand on product appearances and retail prices, AR/VR devices are manufactured with lightweight optical designs, in addition to having their computing units and batteries kept in separate housings, allowing the devices to resemble normal eyeglasses in terms of product appearance If AR/VR devices are designed to receive computing ability, power, network connectivity, or even apps from an external connection to smartphones, then these devices will be marketed as smartphone peripherals, much like smart watches, smart bracelets, and TWS Bluetooth headsets, in terms of product positioning As a result, smartphone brands are likely to make a proactive effort in developing related products while driving the market forward
Furthermore, these glasses-like, consumer AR/VR devices contain only several key components, including optical components, projectors (which serve as their light source), and optical engines To keep a diminutive size, the projectors used in these devices are mostly small-sized LCD or Si-OLED displays For instance, AR glasses mostly employ a birdbath optical design, which projects light from a Si-OLED display source mounted on the top or side of the glasses The adoption of Si-OLED displays has encouraged BOE and Seeya Technology to enter the industry and compete with existing Si-OLED suppliers Sony, Epson, and Kopin, demonstrating a wave of optimism in the AR/VR market
TrendForce believes the AR/VR market will see rapid expansion in 2021 and 2022 as various brands begin participating in AR/VR development, which will also lead to the development of related key components, such as optical components and Si-OLED displays
2019/09/25
The global shipments of smartwatches in 2019 are estimated to total around 6263 million units, according to the latest tracking analysis from the research firm TrendForce Looking ahead to 2020, smartwatch sales will benefit from the lower prices of the earlier versions of the Apple Watch devices and the releases of new smartwatch models from other branded device manufacturers TrendForce forecasts that the global smartphone shipments in 2020 will grow by 286% YoY to around 8055 million units The total shipments of the Apple Watch devices for the same year are also forecasted to grow by 218% YoY to around 34 million units
“The strong demand for the Apple Watch has been the chief growth driver of the whole smartwatch market,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce analyst for wearable devices Tsai pointed out that Apple adjusted the prices of the Series 1 models in conjunction with the launch of the Series 2 models The move helped galvanize the overall sales of the Apple Watch devices
“Apple’s success in the smartwatch market is based on an effective pricing strategy and a proactive approach to the development of new products,” Tsai added “The price cut for the Series 1 models, in particular, has been a significant help in boosting shipments”
The upcoming release of the Series 5 models will again accompany by a price reduction for the Series 3 models Furthermore, new products and perhaps new brands will soon be entering the market All these factors will sustain the strong growth momentum in the future TrendForce’s long-term analysis of the smartwatch market currently forecasts that the global shipments in 2022 will break the ceiling of 100 million units to a total of around 113 million units
Tsai noted that smartwatches still lack dedicated killer apps that can really pique the curiosity of most consumers However, these devices have already incorporated a diverse range of biometric and lifestyle functions that demonstrate value to their users The focus of product development has also shifted Instead of adding new hardware components and functions, device manufacturers now aim to raise consumers’ interest in adopting smartwatches
As Tsai further explained: “The emphasis on value over specs gives entry-level models a key role in sales This is the reason why the Apple Watch models of the latest Series 5 are not that much different hardware-wise from the models of the discontinued Series 4, and why Apple has kept the Series 3 models as the entry-level options”
It is also worth mentioning that device manufacturers have now turned their attention to wearable devices in part because of the stagnating growth in the smartphone market Besides smartwatches, the major hardware brands are also allocating more of their resources into developing other categories of wearable offerings with good demand potential, such as Bluetooth wireless earphones According to Tsai, the established wearable brands including Huawei, Samsung, and Xiaomi will continue to launch new smartwatch models, while some other well-known brands in the smartphone market such as OPPO, Vivo, and Google could make forays into the smartwatch market in the near future TrendForce currently projects that the global shipments of non-Apple smartwatches in 2020 will register a sizable YoY growth of 34% The arrival of new products and market entrants could lead to a noticeable change in the relative market shares of the Apple Watch and the non-Apple smartwatches
2019/03/28
TrendForce states that the global 3D sensing market for smartphones has grown from 819 million USD in 2017 to 308 billion USD in 2018 as iPhones make a complete switch to structured light 3D sensing solutions Yet due to smartphone suppliers mostly focusing on fingerprint on display (FOD ), the global smartphone 3D sensing market is expected to grow by 263%, to a scale of 389 billion USD Apple, anticipated to take up TOF technology in 2020, may boost market development and bring YoY growth up to 531%
TrendForce Analyst Jason Tsai asserts that smartphone 3D sensing market scale growth still largely depends on Apple's iPhone devices Although LG, Samsung and other brands are rolling out smartphones equipped with 3D sensing modules this year, these modules are only limited to a few flagship models and don't contribute noticeably to market scale growth, with total shipments for the whole year arriving at 33 million devices
According to Jason Tsai's analysis, the main incentive for implementing structured light 3D sensing modules for most companies comes not from application, but merely from its potential to become a hot topic in the market On the other hand, TOF (Time of Flight) solutions have lower technological requirements and more solution suppliers, hence smartphone suppliers' interest to switch to TOF
However, TOF solutions are mainly suited for long-range, wide-area environmental detection, and are not necessarily better for facial recognition than structured light solutions Brand manufacturers also lack attractive AR applications, and high resolution TOF solution modules aren't necessarily cheaper than structured light ones These reasons further kill the desire for brand manufacturers to achieve widespread 3D sensing module implementation this year Thus, the penetration rate for smartphone 3D sensing is expected to rise from 84% in 2018 to merely 123%
Observing Apple, who leads the smartphone 3D sensing market, Jason Tsai points out that though Apple is the most aggressive developer of 3D sensing technology, it won't be immediately following in the footsteps of other competitors rolling out TOF solution modules this year, since development in Apple's AR applications is still underway TrendForce predicts that Apple may have to wait until 2020 if it wants to add TOF solution modules to its iPhones and include various AR applications along with it This will increase consumers' habitual usage of AR and prove to be beneficial for Apple's future development of AR related products
As Apple releases new devices with TOF solutions for 3D sensing modules and AR applications along with it in 2020, it may attract other brands to follow up and further accelerate 3D sensing market development It is predicted that the global smartphone 3D sensing market will grow up to 596 billion USD and bring the penetration rate up to 20%
2018/12/10
TrendForce expects the global shipments of VR devices to reach 465 million units in 2018, and 6 million units in 2019, a YoY growth of 29% Oculus’s strategy of price cut has successfully boosted sales since the release of Oculus Quest at the beginning of this year
“Sony is expected to ship 22 million units of PlayStation VR, as the series’ new products have not yet been released,” says TrendForce analyst Jason Tsai, “HTC’s VR shipments are expected to reach 800,000 units” As for Oculus, it has witnessed the largest shipment growth among the three major VR makers, with momentum from Oculus Rift, Oculus Go, and Oculus Quest, which drives the company’s total shipments to 17 million units
Tsai points out that Oculus Quest is the main product of the company, while Facebook will continue to provide more applications for standalone VR devices Rather than making profits from hardware devices, Facebook would put more focus on promoting its platform and content services Therefore, Oculus offers attractive prices to increase the penetration of standalone VR devices Retaining its pricing strategy, Oculus has a chance to offer low-priced Oculus Rift in the future
As for Oculus’s rivals, they have other priorities Sony will continue to focus on console-based VR market and to develop the next-generation PlayStation HTC will retain its market positioning of high performance and outstanding user experience HTC may offer promotions to deal with the pressure from competitors, but boosting shipments will not be the main target for the company
Looking back to the global VR market for 2018, Sony, Oculus, and HTC have their respective market objectives and plans, which moderated the competition between them However, as Oculus continues its aggressive strategy to expand the market share and introduce more software and applications, competition in the global VR market may grow tense
2018/07/11
According to the latest research by TrendForce, the global VR market sees marginal growth this year, and will remain inactive till the year-end due to the conservative attitude of most manufacturers and lack of new products TrendForce expects major manufacturers to schedule their new product launching at the end of the year to leverage the market in 2019 As for the rest of this year, the competition between Oculus and HTC in the Chinese market would be a focus for global VR market
TrendForce reveals that global shipments of VR devices, including PC-based VR, console-based VR and standalone VR, recorded 365 million units in 2017, and will reach 465 million units in 2018, a YoY growth of 274% “Sony's strategy this year continues to focus on console-based VR market, with the shipments estimated at 2 million units thanks to loyal users of PS4 and the Christmas sales,” says Jason Tsai, an analyst of TrendForce
On the other hand, Oculus has not released its high-end standalone VR device--Santa Cruz, but has entered the Chinese market with Oculus Go via cooperation with Xiaomi For the whole year of 2018, TrendForce estimates that the shipments of Oculus will come to 900,000 units
With regard to HTC, who has launched Vive Focus and Vive Pro successively, its shipment is estimated at around 600,000 units The brand will only have limited growth due to competition with Xiaomi in the Chinese market The shipment of another VR device, Windows Mixed Reality Headset, may decline to 150,000 units while most of its partners have turned a conservative attitude towards the VR market
When Sony continues to exclusively focus on the console-based VR for gaming market, Oculus and HTC have emerged to be major players in VR market HTC launched new products ahead of Oculus to take the lead in market, but Oculus Go then allowed Oculus to catch up, especially after Oculus’s cooperation with Xiaomi The products are now branded with Xiaomi, produced by Xiaomi, and connected to the platform of Xiaomi, who has been actively assisting Oculus in increasing the shares in the Chinese market
In addition, other Chinese branded companies may follow suit and join the camp of Oculus like Xiaomi This would bring greater pressure to HTC, and make it easier for Oculus to go through the development of its high-end model--Santa Cruz Tsai believes that Oculus would schedule the launch of Santa Cruz at the end of this year or even early next year, further pushing the company's shipments to 13 million units in 2019
