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2020/09/29
Yearly TV panel shipment for 2020 is projected to reach 26753 million units, a 62% decrease YoY, while shipment by area is projected to increase by 07% YoY, coming to 1696 million square meters, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The decrease can mostly be attributed to three factors: first, the trend of gradual increases in TV sizes; second, the slowdown in capacity expansions for panel fabs; and finally, the continued high demand for IT panels, the manufacturing of which crowded out fab capacities for TV panels Furthermore, due to the aforementioned decreases in TV panel capacity and TV panel shipment, the glut ratio of TV panel shipment vs TV set sell-in this year is projected to reach 24%, which is lower than the 2019 figure of 31%, thereby generating an upward momentum for TV panel prices
TrendForce analyst Jeanette Chan indicates that, although LG Display has deferred the closure of its South Korea-based TV panel fab, LGD’s total TV panel capacity in Korea accounts for only 3% of the global total from all panel makers As such, output from LGD is unlikely to change the present shortage situation in the TV panel market Furthermore, the lower-than-expected pace at which certain panel makers have been increasing their production capacities in 2H20 is expected to result in a mere 11% HoH growth in overall TV panel capacity by area compared to 1H20
On the other hand, the cyclical upturn in TV sets has ramped up the demand for large-sized display products, gradually pushing the average TV panel size towards 487 inches However, given the manufacturers’ limited capacity expansion, the supply of TV panels has remained tight, and the glut ratio of TV panel shipment vs TV set sell-in is projected to decrease to about 9% in 2H20 That means TV panel prices can rise by up to 30% and 10% QoQ on average in 3Q20 and 4Q20, respectively
Although CSOT and HKC are expected to expand their panel capacities with the addition of the T7 fab for the former and the Changsha-based H5 fab for the latter in 2021, TV panel supply is still projected to undergo a 41% decrease YoY next year, reaching 25664 million units, due to the closure of SDC’s Korea-based production lines this December and due to the fact that most panel makers have realigned their panel output to primarily IT products and ultra large-sized TV panels by now In terms of TV panel shipment by area, total shipment is projected to increase by 35% YoY in 2021, reaching 1755 million square meters On the other hand, the average size of TV panels will likely further increase to 50 inches, while the interplay between supply and demand is expected to result in a 20% glut ratio of TV panel shipment vs TV set sell-in in 2021 compared to 24% in 2020, meaning the market’s shortage situation is expected to persist
2020/09/25
After a period of back-and-forth negotiations, the sale of CEC Panda has finally materialized, as BOE formally announced on September 23 its plan to acquire an 80831% share in CEC Panda’s Nanjing-based Gen 85 fab and 51% share in CEC Panda’s Chengdu-based Gen 86+ fab, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The acquisition is expected to be in its final stages by now After BOE’s B17 (Gen 105) fab began operating in 2020, the company now possesses about 211% of the global large-sized panel capacity On the other hand, CEC Panda’s Nanjing-based Gen 85 fab and Chengdu-based Gen 86 fab collectively accounts for about 47% of the global total As such, if the acquisition takes place successfully, BOE will possess more than a quarter of the global large-sized panel capacity, and this share is expected to further increase to 28% in 2021 Within the context of the global display panel industry, the acquisition will not only bolster BOE’s leadership position, but also increase its influence considerably
BOE will strengthen its market leadership while optimizing its TV and IT product stacks
TrendForce’s observation of various display products’ shipment volumes indicates that BOE is the shipment leader in product categories including TV, monitor, and notebook panels Once CEC Panda’s Nanjing-based Gen 85 fab and Chengdu-based Gen 86 fab start contributing to BOE’s panel shipment, BOE is expect to raise its market share in the TV panel market from 185% to 233% Similarly, BOE’s shares in the monitor panel market and notebook panel market will likely grow from 27% to 317% and from 273% to 315%, respectively, allowing the company to further its market share advantage over its immediate competitor
Given BOE’s long-term IPS R&D and CEC Panda’s focus on VA panels for TV, the acquisition is expected to both provide a complementary product portfolio for BOE and deepen its partnership with tier-one brands In addition, CEC Panda’s Gen 86 fab will likely shore up BOE’s lack of 50-inch and 70-inch capacities, therefore expanding its TV panel offerings for those display sizes In terms of notebook displays, both companies have been focused on IPS panels However, whereas BOE’s notebook panels are for the most part based on a-si technology, CEC Panda’s offerings are primarily IGZO-based, giving them the advantage of low power consumption Once again, the acquisition will allow BOE to compensate for its weaker presence in IT products, such as gaming notebook panels or low power consumption panels, with CEC’s IGZO offerings
On the other hand, BOE’s acquisition of CEC Panda will cause ripples throughout the display supply chain, since the latter has been operating in close partnership with TPV, which is the largest monitor OEM globally under the parent company CEC As well, the future of CEC Panda’s Najing-based Gen 6 fab remains unclear, since its production lines contain mostly older equipment, and the fab mainly manufactures TN and VA panels If the fab can be upgraded to produce IPS panels and curved VA panels instead, its production lines will be able to deliver more value going forward
BOE and CSOT will dictate the direction of China’s panel industry
TrendForce believes that panel makers specializing in display panels with colorless substrates, led by BOE, will be the key to the Chinese panel industry’s expanded market share and market dominance, since these panel makers possess in-house technical and capacity advantages Alternatively, some companies, including primarily CSOT, possess both technical competency in display panels and ample assistance from other brands under the same parent companies Although BOE and CSOT’s respective business models each represent polar opposite strategies, they are expected to contribute to the Chinese supply chain’s control over the global display and panel industries
2020/07/28
TV panel prices started to decline in early- to mid-2Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations In an effort to clear inventory and alleviate pressure from falling TV panel prices, some panel manufacturers decided to either lower their capacity utilization or shift their production capacities to IT panels, which saw greater demand at the time When the pandemic slowed down in late-2Q20, however, a wave of urgent orders for TV panels emerged as well Given panel manufacturers’ inability to completely fulfill the spiking demand from TV brands, TV panel prices rebounded into an upswing On the whole, under the dual influences of production capacity shifts and the COVID-19 pandemic, global TV panel shipment reached a modest figure of 12905 million pieces in 1H20, an 84% decrease YoY
TrendForce analyst Jeanette Chan indicates that, as the pandemic stabilized in May, governments eased national lockdowns, and the US governments started distributing stimulus payments, TV brands saw the perfect opportunity to stimulate consumer demand by engaging in discount pricing strategies As TV manufacturers intensified their stock-up demand for TV panels, TV panel shipment reached 6479 million pieces in 2Q20, a minor QoQ increase of 08%
BOE led the industry in TV panel shipment in 1H20 while CSOT and INX trailed closely
BOE began adjusting its allocation of Gen 85 products in 2Q20 in order to capture the leftover display panel orders that emerged in the market following SDC’s exit from the LCD manufacturing business Furthermore, since BOE maintained its past strategy of specializing in large-sized TV panels, BOE’s slight dip in TV panel manufacturing did not change its leadership position in the market, thanks to BOE’s enormous production capacity BOE led the industry in TV panel shipment in 1H20 by shipping 2326 million pieces, a 146% decrease YoY
CSOT was the first panel manufacturer to resume operations following the outbreak-induced work stoppage, and the company registered its highest-ever performance in TV panel shipment in 1Q20 as a result In 2Q20, CSOT’s TV panel shipment underwent a slight decline since the company increased its allocation of monitor panel and ultra-large-sized 85-inch TV panel manufacturing However, CSOT was still able to increase its TV panel shipment in 1H20 by 83% YoY by reaching 213 million pieces due to its T6 fab reaching maximum capacity utilization this year, ranking the company number two in terms of TV panel shipment INX recorded sluggish shipment in 1Q20 because of pandemic-induced issues in back-end module capacity But the company saw its demand for mid- and small-sized TV panels recover in 2Q20 owing to momentum from the stay-at-home economy Third-ranked INX’s TV panel shipment reached 2034 million pieces in 1H20, a 72% decrease YoY
HKC astonished with excellent YoY shipment growth in 1H20 with rising panel capacity
HKC’s TV panel shipment reached 1393 million pieces in 1H20, a 998% increase YoY, which was by far the highest YoY increase among all panel manufacturers In addition to increasing the panel capacity and shipment of the Gen 86 production lines at its Chuzhou and Mianyang fabs, HKC decided to eschew its past focus on small-sized panel manufacturing These factors enabled HKC to score its excellent YoY growth
Rising panel prices in 3Q20 means panel manufacturers are projected to make a recovery in their profitability
TrendForce believes that the panel manufacturers’ production capacities have now reached maximum utilization rates, driven by the simultaneous increase in panel demand and prices Total TV panel shipment is likely to reach 678 million pieces in 3Q20, a 46% increase QoQ In spite of this quarterly growth, the pandemic has caused a slowdown in new fabs’ capacity expansion This, combined with the consistently high demand for IT panels, is expected to compress the shipment of TV panels, meaning TV panel shipment is still projected to show a 63% decrease YoY Nevertheless, the reduction of TV panel supply is accompanied by strong demand from downstream clients Therefore, TV panel prices are projected to undergo skyrocketing growth in 3Q20
