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2021/05/18
Owing to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, not only did LED revenue experience a downward trajectory, but this decline also reached a magnitude rarely seen in recent years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations However, as vaccinations begin taking place in 1H21, the LED market’s long-stifled demand is expected to rebound from rock bottom Hence, global LED market revenue will likely undergo a corresponding recovery this year as well, with a forecasted US$1653 billion, an 81% increase YoY, in 2021 Most of this increase can be attributed to four major categories, including automotive LED, Mini/Micro LED, video wall LED, and UV/IR LED
TrendForce expects the soaring growth of NEV (new energy vehicle) sales and the accelerated adoption of LED lighting solutions in new models of conventional fossil fuel vehicles this year to result in a persistently rising penetration rate of automotive LED solutions since 2020 Automotive LED revenue for 2021 will likely reach $293 billion, a 137% increase YoY, making it the fastest growing sector among all LED applications
Demand for emerging Mini/Micro LED technologies in display applications, on the other hand, has been skyrocketing this year In particular, the latest 129-inch iPad Pro and Samsung TVs both feature Mini LED backlighting technology, and these products will propel Mini/Micro LED revenue for 2021 to $380 million, an impressive 265% increase YoY, in turn giving the Mini/Micro LED sector the second largest growth among the four categories Coming in third place is the video wall market Emerging solutions, such as all-in-one LED display for meeting and conference, 5G 8K ultra-high resolution video walls, home theaters, and virtual production, have placed the video wall market in the spotlight in recent years Video wall LED revenue for 2021 is expected to reach $178 billion, a 12% increase YoY and the third-largest growing sector in the LED industry
It should be pointed out that, among all segments of the UV/IR LED market, the UV-C LED segment has garnered significant attention due to the onset of the pandemic Not only have various brands been gaining a major awareness of the importance of disinfection and sterilization, but UV-C LED products have also been improving in terms of radiant power (optical power) Notably, home appliance brand manufacturers from China, Europe, Korea, and Japan are all planning to integrate UV-C LED technologies into their products, and over 35 manufacturers are introducing or planning to introduce UV-C LED in their products All in all, various applications are expected to drive up UV/IR LED revenue to $830 million, a 27% increase YoY
On the whole, the gradual recovery and rebound of demand for traditional LED applications, as well as the upcoming ramp-up of niche LED technologies, will be the main drivers of LED market revenue At the same time, both demand and revenue in the LED industry are expected to enter an upward trajectory accordingly due to two factors: First, the improvement in the supply and demand situation of the LED industry has allowed prices of most LED products to stabilize, with some products even seeing a price hike; second, emerging LED applications command higher ASPs and gross margins TrendForce thus believes that LED manufacturers will no longer have to reduce price by increasing order quantity Companies in the LED industry are therefore expected to post improved earnings as a result
(Note: The “LED market revenue” indicated in this press release includes revenue from LED package in various applications, as well as revenue from Mini/Micro LED chips directly used in backlighting and other self-emitting products)
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
2020/10/20
After global LED giant Cree divested its lighting business in 2019, the companies today (Oct 20) announced its plan to sell its LED business to SMART Global Holdings (SGH) for US$300 million TrendForce indicates that Chinese manufacturers have quickly risen in the LED industry in recent years, benefiting from superior production capacities and cost optimization measures These manufacturers are continuing to capture the existing market shares of major overseas LED companies, such as Nichia, OSRAM OS, Lumileds, and Cree Furthermore, given the poor state of the global economy in the past two years, companies that were previously dominant in the LED industry must now deal with the difficult reality of having their business operations or stocks sold off to other companies
Cree’s LED packaging and lighting businesses generated more than $1 billion in yearly revenues for the 2013-2014 period At the time, its LED business ranked second only to that of Nichia in terms of revenue However, in light of competition from Chinese companies fielding aggressive pricing strategies and the gradually slowing growth of the LED lighting market in recent years, Cree’s yearly LED revenue reached a mere $480 million in 2019, and the company’s global ranking slid from among the top three to eighth place
Final price of Cree’s LED business is limited by regulatory complications with US aerospace and military technologies
According to TrendForce, Cree is estimated to sell its LED business for a mere $300 million, a far lower price compared to similar transactions by Lumileds and OSRAM OS This low price is primarily due to the myriad restrictions and export controls by the US government specifically targeting sales of technology companies In addition to Cree’s role as a supplier of LED lighting products, the company’s subsidiary WolfSpeed offers a range key components made from SiC (silicon carbide), a third-generation compound semiconductor material As WolfSpeed has been in close collaboration with the aerospace and defense industries in the US, it possesses a significant number of sensitive technologies On the other hand, the primary advantage of Cree’s LED technologies comes from the fact that its SiC substrates massively raises the overall performance of its LED products Since it is difficult to separate Cree’s LED-related patents/technologies from its SiC technologies, potential buyers of Cree’s business are therefore limited to US-based parties, in turn placing a limit on the final sales price
The LED supply chain will continue its gradual transition to Asia, while Cree may potentially look for chip OEM partners in the future
Under intense pricing pressure from its competitors, Cree has in recent years gradually outsourced its LED business to OEM partners with mature technologies, including Fujian Lightning Optoelectronic and Lextar TrendForce indicates that, even with the upcoming ownership transfer of Cree’s LED business, Cree is at the moment still an important client of its OEM partners, and its management structure will not change in the short run That is why the overall trend of LED supply chain shifting to Asia has not changed As well, SGH does not have a need for SiC substrate development, meaning SGH will likely adopt a more flexible business strategy which involves looking for Asia-based chip OEM partners in the future
2018/04/04
The Trump administration on April 4, 2018 published a list of 1300 Chinese exports and proposed to apply a 25% tariff on these products However, the proposal would have limited impact on LED companies in China and Taiwan, according to LEDinside, a division of TrendForce This is because the LED products included in the list are mainly intermediate goods, including wafers and backlight products These products account for only a small proportion of all the LED products that China exports to the US market, while most of these intermediate goods produced by Taiwan LED companies are shipped to China
“Among all the products in the list, categories including 85414020, 85419000, and 90330020, etc are related to the LED industry”, says Figo Wang, senior analyst of LEDinside China is a major producer of LED end-products and end-applications, but the three categories above are intermediate goods in the industry The target market of these intermediate goods includes mainly manufacturers of LED end-products in China The intermediate goods are not directly sold to individual consumers Therefore, they only account for a small proportion of LED exports, and contribute to less than 5% of the revenue of LED industry “There are only a few makers of LED end-products in the United States, which means even less intermediate goods would be directly exported to the United States”, says Wang
LEDinside notes that, the HS code of LEDs made by China is 85414010 In this list, the category of 85414020 actually refers to solar cell products according to information provided by Chinese Customs Therefore, the value of LED exports that may be subject to the tariff is only US$46 million in 2017 Even if the category of 85414010 is also included to the list, the value would be only US$129 million The total value would be less than US$200 million, which would have only a very limited impact to China’s LED exports, of which the total value exceeds tens of billions US dollars
On the other hand, a large proportion of China’s LED exports to the US are end-applications, such as lighting products in category 94540090 and 94051000, and display products in category 85312000, etc, but the above three categories are not included in the tariff list this time In addition, as there are only a few US-based manufacturers of end LED applications, most products of branded lighting companies and sales channels are made in China If these products are subject to the tariff in the future, the LED end-products sold in the US market may face significant price rise
2017/12/20
Major Chinese LED chip suppliers including San’an Optoelectronics and HC SemiTek have lowered their product prices recently, indicating the end of LED chip price hike that had lasted for one and a half year According to LEDinside, a division of TrendForce, the recent price drop signals the end of LED chip undersupply, and the next year will witness a balance in LED chip supply and demand
“However, as the major LED chip makers continue to carry out capacity expansion plans, we do not exclude the possibility of temporary oversupply in the next two years”, says Figo Wang, senior analyst of LEDinside
Wang also points out that prices of LED chips in China fell sharply during 2015, resulting in a surge of orders going to Chinese LED chip suppliers in 2016 In order to meet the demand, Chinese chip suppliers have decided to raise their CAPEX In comparison, other chip makers worldwide have lowered their investment in production, and even withdrew from the LED market In 2017, Chinese LED chip makers continue their active investment in the industry and this year’s new MOCVD expansion plans mainly come from San’an Optoelectronics, HC SemiTek and Aucksun
Regarding 2-inch equivalent epitaxial wafer, San’an Optoelectronics, HC SemiTek and Aucksun increase their production capacity by 13 million pieces, 1 million pieces, and 083 million pieces respectively, making them the top 3 LED chip suppliers in China With the chip makers’ capacity expansion at the end of 2017, the market is expected to enter a balance in supply and demand Therefore, suppliers like San’an Optoelectronics and HC SemiTek strategically adjust their prices of chips for lighting applications and digital displays, which are always a focus of competition in the industry The prices, which have been pushed up for one and a half year, have chances to enter a period of stability or slight fluctuation
After this round of large-scale expansion, the production capacity of the three industry leaders will exceed 1 million pieces per month, increasing the industrial production concentration It can also improve the supply structure and prevent excessive price competition In addition, new MOCVD systems have higher production efficiency than previous generation of K465i, lowering the cost by 30% As the result, major players like San’an Optoelectronics and HC SemiTek will enhance their cost competitiveness while other suppliers that cannot afford the production expansion will be marginalized in the market
2015/03/09
At the long-awaited “Spring Forward” media event hosted by Apple on March 9, all eyes will be on the reveal of the Apple Watch, which will have a watch cover made of sapphire glass By incorporating this material into its newest products, Apple has provided an unprecedented, game-changing opportunity for China’s sapphire industry LEDinside, a division of TrendForce, anticipates sapphire market demand will multiply once these smart watches hit the market LEDinside’s Senior Analyst Figo Wang further stated the sapphire manufacturing will likely become a globally competitive section of China’s materials industry
According to LEDinside’s estimation, the total shipments of Apple Watch in 2015 will reach 20 million sets Among the different Apple Watch models, only the Watch Sport series is not using sapphire on the watch’s cover display To be fitted on the cover of an Apple Watch, the sapphire glass requires to go through double-sided polishing and 25D process, so the sapphire watch cover has to be thicker compared with that of other products LEDinside projects a total of 308 million millimeters of two-inch equivalent sapphire ingot will be used for the Apple Watch covers in 2015 This accounts for 18% of sapphire ingots produced worldwide for the entire year Facing this new surging demand, the sapphire industry can look forward to a dramatic improvement in the market demand and supply
With Lens Technology and Biel Crystal as vanguards, Chinese sapphire makers join the Apple Watch supply chain
The sapphire covers for Apple’s smart watches are sourced from two Chinese suppliers: Lens Technology and Biel Crystal Due to technology, costs, and geography, Chinese sapphire makers intend to work closely with these two major glass suppliers Through cooperation, they will be able to get the most benefit from the supply chain
Wang further noted, “Being the suppliers to Apple’s optical glass, Lens Technology and Biel Crystal have paid close attention to the application of sapphire glass in consumer electronics” Lens Technology’s total revenue in 2014 reached RMB 1449 billion As its biggest client, Apple accounted for 4744% of Lens Technology’s revenue for that year Lens Technology’s official IPO is set on March 10th, when the company will be listed on ChiNext board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Biel Crystal also has a long and established relationship with Apple that began earlier than Lens Technology’s
China’s sapphire makers have the geographical advantage that allow them to work closely with these two major domestic glass processors during the R&D phase This alliance with Lens Technology and Biel Crystal aims to improve the makers’ production and processing, so they will be able to increase their yield rates and satisfy Apple’s demands One of these partners, Harbin Aurora Optoelectronics, has even netted orders from both Lens Technology and Biel Crystal, thus benefitting fully from orders for Apple Watch products With these gains, Harbin Aurora will be able to position itself next to Russia’s Monocrystal as another global giant in the sapphire industry
