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keyword：Jason Tsai，
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2017/04/20
Among the possible new technologies to be incorporated in this year’s refresh of the iPhone series, 3D sensing has generated a lot of interests in terms of applications A 3D sensing solution requires an RGB camera module an infrared (IR) sensor module that uses VCSEL (vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser) as a light source With more high-end smartphones adopt 3D sensing, TrendForce estimates that the worldwide market scale of IR sensor modules for mobile devices will reach US$145 million in 2017
Since Apple gained IPs related to 3D sensing via its acquisition of PrimeSense in 2013, there have been anticipations that future smartphones will one day feature facial recognition based on this technology Jason Tsai, TrendForce’s wearable analyst, pointed out that the 3D facial recognition feature on smartphones is not going to match digitally created 3D models of human faces and match them with reference models in databases as most people would expect “Acquiring and processing data of 3D models is quite burdensome for smartphone hardware, especially if models are to be constructed in precise detail,” said Tsai “To have a 3D facial recognition feature with an acceptable response time, smartphone makers are probably going to enhance the existing 2D facial recognition solutions with 3D sensing Therefore, 3D sensing will be a supporting technology that mainly helps to determine whether the face that is being recorded comes from a real living person”
Generally, solutions based on 3D sensing obtain dimensional data including depth values by scanning the environment within a defined range These data in turn create digital 3D models that can be analyzed or matched with reference models in the database Tsai noted that extending the scanning range and getting finer depth details of objects will take more computing power and time
“Scanning range and modeling capability have positive relationships with hardware specifications,” said Tsai “In the realm of AR for mobile devices, applications are still too few to warrant the hardware cost for 3D sensing There is also the issue of increasing power consumption Consequently, smartphone makers are not too keen on using 3D sensing for AR-based features because this kind of innovations do not significantly increase the value of their products”
On the other hand, 3D sensing can strengthen user security by making the facial recognition function of the device more accurate This does not mean that smartphone has to create, store and match exact models of human faces 3D sensing is just there to ensure that the smartphone can recognize that the facial image that the camera has captured comes from a real living person
“3D facial recognition for smartphones must be fast enough so that it can assist in tasks such as unlocking the device, mobile payment and identity verification,” Tsai pointed out “Convenience and response time are just as important as accuracy in the adoption of new biometric technologies Otherwise, consumers would still prefer passwords and fingerprints”
Tsai added that as 3D sensing components will push up hardware cost for smartphone makers, such solutions will initially be available for the high-end market segment Gradually, there will be more smartphones featuring this kind of technology in the near future
2017/01/06
AR and VR continue to grab attention worldwide and their uses have expanded into tourism, work, warehousing operations and drones, reports TrendForce from CES 2017 The related demonstrations and announcements made at this year’s event have shown that the AR/VR industry as a whole is shifting its focus from hardware development to expanding applications TrendForce forecasts that the annual global shipments of VR devices will reach 51 million units in 2017 and grow to 85 million in 2018 Note that the projected figures exclude mobile VR products
“This year’s CES has shown that the novelty surrounding AR and VR has worn off slightly when compared with the level of excitement during last year’s event,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce wearable device analyst “With market entrants seeing limited returns for their efforts, only those companies that are truly committed in this field will keep launching new products and exploring new applications, thereby turning concepts into practical innovations”
Tsai noted that AR has received more attention at the event compared with VR There were demonstrations of AR smart glasses from brands such as Osterhout Design Group (ODG), Vuzix, Epson and Kopin Vuzix’s products in particular are running on Intel’s chips, while ODG’s smart glasses are equipped with Qualcomm’s latest solution Snapdragon 835
Looking at VR, this year’s CES has shown that technology brands worldwide are still launching and developing new devices However, the three leading brands Sony, Oculus and HTC are now concentrating mainly on improving the accessories to their devices As they are not expected to release their next-generation hardware until 2018, the market demand for VR devices is going to cool down a bit this year
TrendForce’s latest VR device shipment projection indicates that around 25 million units of PlayStation VR (PS VR) will be shipped worldwide this year PS VR will therefore make up the largest share in the total annual shipments of 51 million units Also, device shipments of HTC and Oculus for the entire 2017 are estimated to reach 06 and 12 million units, respectively Excluding the top three vendors, combined VR device shipments from other brands in 2017 will come to about 08 million units
Tsai added that this year’s CES has also witnessed a further expansion of applications for AR and VR technologies in addition to the usual VR gaming The AR/VR industry is taking its solutions to areas such as tourism, work, warehousing operations and drones “Growing these application markets will be critical to the foundation of the industry, as opposed to hardware vendors putting out similar products,” Tsai pointed out
TrendForce estimates that the combined annual revenue of VR hardware and software markets will hit US$34 billion in 2017 Industry participants will need a period to find and develop profitable applications before explosive revenue growth can occur TrendForce furthermore anticipates that both hardware and software markets will finally start to take off in 2020, when their combined annual revenue is forecast to reach US$224 billion
TrendForce will be holding CES Forum 2017 at National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) International Convention Center on January 20 For details about this event please contact us via phone or email
2016/12/15
TrendForce’s latest market survey finds that VR devices will enjoy strong sales this Christmas season on account that game consoles are also going to be popular gift purchases Based on TrendForce’s latest analysis, annual shipments of VR devices worldwide (excluding mobile VR device) are projected to reach 291 million units for 2016 and grow massively by 75% to 51 million units for 2017 In terms of ranking of brands by shipments, Sony is expected to take first place this year, followed by Oculus in second and HTC in third
“Shipments of PS VR, Oculus Rift and HTC Vive have all being constrained by low production yields and shortages of key components,” said Jason Tsai, wearable device analyst at TrendForce “Generally speaking, the market supply of VR devices will remain tight until 2018”
On the demand side, much of VR device sales for 2016 will depend on consumer demand during Christmas holidays As sales of gaming hardware and software are now at their seasonal peak, sales of VR devices are expected to surge as well Due to the novelty factor, VR devices are expected to be one of the hot holiday gift options
In terms of annual volumes, Sony is projected to ship around 15 million units this year “Despite the AMOLED panel shortage and the low production yield, Sony has the highest annual figure compared with the other two major brands,” said Tsai
Tsai also pointed out that December will account for at least half of PS VR sales for the year because PS VR as a console accessory will follow the sales pattern of PS4 “The stock of PS VR in retail channels will probably be almost depleted by the end of the holiday period,” added Tsai “Sony therefore will be working hard to increase shipments next year in part to meet the strong demand and in part to fulfill the orders that were not completed in 2016 Additionally, Sony will also launch more exclusive PS VR games developed by third-parties next year TrendForce forecasts that shipments of PS VR device for 2017 will reach about 25 million units, representing an impressive annual growth of 667%”
Shipments of Oculus Rift and HTC Vive for this year will respectively come to 650,000 and 460,000, according to TrendForce’s estimation While Oculus and HTC lag behind Sony in volumes, their products are also in high demand TrendForce expects inventories of Rift and Vive in retail channels will be tight during the busy season, but there is no risk of these two devices being out of stock compared with PS VR
Annual shipments of Rift and Vive for 2017 are forecast to reach 12 million and 600,000 units, respectively Oculus and HTC will continue to strengthen their supply chains next year to raise their shipments Furthermore, both brands plan to launch their next-generation VR devices sometime between the fourth quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2018 as to create new demand
Revenue of global VR market will total US$224 billion in 2020 with software making up a larger revenue share compared with hardware
The revenue of the global VR market in 2016 will total just US$19 billion, according to TrendForce’s estimation Revenue sources include hardware and software but exclude revenue from mobile VR devices As hardware is the focus during this early period of development for VR technologies, it also accounts for a greater share of the total revenue relative to software
Because the development of the current VR market is hardware-driven, growth is being delayed by shortages of components, especially AMOLED panels It will take time for the display industry to significantly expand the overall production capacity for AMOLED panels Meanwhile, the widespread adoption of AMOLED among smartphones is squeezing the supply going to VR devices Branded VR device vendors this year have found that issues with component supply, along with the low yield rates during the production, have caused their shipments to be lower than their targets
TrendForce expects the VR market will begin to expand at a more rapid pace in 2018, when hardware shipments begin to stabilize By 2020, global VR market will grow to US$224 billion, and software will have a larger revenue share compared with hardware Various VR-related applications will also take off at that time
2016/10/17
Sony’s PlayStation VR (PS VR) immediately achieved sold-out status following its release on October 13 The event signaled the start of a new round of competition in the global VR device market in the fourth quarter of 2016 “Demand for VR devices will remain quite strong in the next two years,” said Jason Tsai, wearable device analyst for TrendForce “Conversely, product shipments will not keep pace with the demand Shortages of key components, particularly OLED panels, will prevent device makers from putting more products on the shelves”
As VR devices are a new kind of consumer electronic products, there are going be manufacturing challenges VR device makers and their component suppliers will have to work through issues related to yield rate and production capacity, so the supply of VR devices will be limited during their initial releases
“The top three branded VR device vendors – HTC, Oculus and Sony – are all seeing high demand for their respective products, but they currently do not have the production capacity to match,” Tsai pointed out “The three major vendors may face the unfortunate situation of not having enough products on stock to satisfy consumers during the peak sales season of November and December”
The higher-than-expected demand for their products has spurred VR device vendors to expand their purchases of key components, including OLED panels However, the increasing adoption of OLED displays in smartphones is squeezing the share of OLED panel supply for VR devices
Google recently launched Daydream View, a VR viewer and controller package that works with compatible smartphones The appearance of this type of hardware will also encourage smartphone makers to feature OLED displays on more of their products In sum, TrendForce expects tight supply for VR-related components to persist over the next year or two
PS VR to stay ahead of competitions on account of assistance from PS4 Pro
As every branded VR device vendors are having increasing their supply, Sony will remain as the market leader due to PS VR’s connection with the successful PlayStation 4 game console Moreover, Sony will begin selling PlayStation 4 Pro (PS4 Pro) in November As an upgraded version of PlayStation 4, PS4 Pro will incorporate all the major selling points (ie VR, HDR capability and improved hardware) and help propel Sony’s console sales to a higher level According to TrendForce’s estimation, the total annual sales volume of PlayStation 4 will grow 152% from 184 million units in 2016 to 212 million units in 2017
“Not only will the VR feature drive PlayStation sales, PS4 Pro’s hardware will also increase consumer interests in PlayStation VR,” said Tsai “With the demand for PS VR set to take off, the main problem left for Sony is securing the supply of components HTC Vive and Oculus Rift on the other hand will be competing for market share against the more exciting PS VR while facing production bottleneck related to parts shortages Thus, HTC and Oculus will be in a more difficult position going forward”
2016/07/21
With download and active user numbers far exceeding other popular apps, Nintendo’s Pokémon GO has generated an enormous wave of enthusiasm for mobile gaming and augmented reality (AR) technology worldwide According to the latest analysis from the global market research firm TrendForce, the revenue from Pokémon GO is forecast to top US$800 million in 2017 The game is set to become a significant contributor to the expansion of the global AR software market, which will reach US$30 billion in scale by 2020
“The popularity of the Pokémon brand and its character IP, rather than the AR technology, is mainly responsible for the success of this game,” said Jason Tsai, wearable device analyst for TrendForce “Other AR games that were released earlier did not resonate with consumers because they do not have the long and famous brand history that Pokémon has Over a 20-year period, this title has built up a franchise that spans across games, films, anime, toys and other industries In sum, the brand’s widespread recognition and its tens of millions of fans are the driving force behind this craze over Pokémon GO”
Tsai also pointed out that Nintendo plans to generate a lot more additional values from the game: “The revenue from the game will be divided according to the typical arrangement Most of it will go to download platforms (ie Google Play and Apple’s App Store) and Niantic, the developer and distributor of the game Though Nintendo controls part of the Pokémon franchise and will also receive a share of the revenue, making profit from the game is not company’s primary, long-term goal The real aim is to generate continuing publicity with the Pokémon brand using the AR technology and attract potential customers to other, even more valuable areas of the franchise such as theme parks”
Tsai added that Pokémon GO’s popularity will benefit the entire AR industry by encouraging further innovations in mobile-based AR technology: “Many software developers will try to replicate the game’s success and explore other possible applications for the AR technology If the game Angry Bird could be seen as the takeoff point in the growth trajectory of mobile games, then Pokémon GO could also be regarded as the catalyst for the rapid expansion of AR applications on the mobile platform Some app developers will take the lessons from the Pokémon GO and create knockoff games However, these titles may end up being not as successful due to the lack recognizable character IP or the poor use of the IP in game design Nonetheless, the proliferation of mobile-based AR games will increase consumers’ contact with the technology People will eventually become more familiar with using AR apps for different activities Besides spurring the creation of new AR game apps, Pokémon GO will help expand AR’s role in consumers’ everyday lives
