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2022/12/29
Shipments of monitor panels have fallen over the quarters this year due to various factors that have caused disruptions across the global economy and politics TrendForce projects that shipments of monitor panels will total just around 158 million pieces for 2022, showing a YoY decline of 88%
According to TrendForce’s research on the market for display panels, monitor panels experienced a large downward shipment correction later than did TV and NB panels For TV panels, the correction phase began in 3Q21 Turning to NB panels, a steep decline in shipments occurred in 2Q22 As for monitor panels, their shipments had not fallen significantly until 3Q22 With the correction taking place at a later time, the eventual rebound will also occur at a more distant time in the future Since monitor brands are still holding an excessively high level of panel inventory at this moment, shipments of monitor panels are forecasted to drop again by 53% QoQ for 1Q23
Looking further ahead to 2Q23, inventory level will return to a more optimal level for brands and channels With the impending arrival of the traditional peak season in 2H23, shipments of monitor panels are forecasted to rebound to around 357 million units for 2Q22 and thereby return to the average level for second-quarter shipments in the four years before the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic (ie, from 2016 to 2019) Also, since the shipment figure for 1Q23 will be a low base for comparison, the shipment figure for 2Q23 will reflect a double-digit QoQ growth Moving into 2H23, global inflation is expected to ease, and China’s economy is anticipated to undergo a recovery due to the loosening of pandemic-related restrictions Therefore, the supply-demand dynamics of the market for monitor panels will likely follow the usual seasonal patterns
Based on TrendForce’s tracking of panel shipments, shipments of monitor panels started to slide after reaching a peak in 4Q21 and are expected to arrive at a trough in 1Q23 After inventory level returns to an optimal level for the entire supply chain, brands will regain procurement momentum Then, shipments of monitor panels will climb over the quarters TrendForce currently forecasts that the total for 2023 will come to 149 million pieces, showing a diminished YoY growth rate of 58%
（Note: “NB” stands for notebook (laptop) computer）
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/09/08
According to TrendForce, although the 1Q22 is a traditional off-season, thanks to the backstop of deferred order shipments and demand for commercial models, notebook panel shipments grew by 55% compared with the same period in 2021 However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February poured oil on the inflation fire The impact of China's lockdowns in 2Q22 led to a decline in the assembly capacity of ODMs and a rise in in-plant inventories Terminal demand was arrested by the overall harsh economic environment Rising inventory levels made it necessary for brands to further reduce panel purchases Moving into 3Q22, the market continued to suffer from rising inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in weak terminal demand and in high whole device inventory at the channel end, as well as high in-transit whole device and panel inventory As distribution channels and brands actively reduce inventory, orders for notebook panels face sharp downward revisions Shipments of notebook panels in 3Q22 is estimated to decrease by 134% QoQ to 451 million units, even lower than the 499 million units in the same 2019 period before the pandemic
TrendForce further indicates notebook panel shipments came in at 156 million units in July, a decrease of 348% YoY, and also lower than the 163 million units shipped in July 2019 before the pandemic Monitor panel shipments amounted to 117 million units in July this year, a decrease of 163% YoY, which was also lower than the 118 million units in July 2019, indicating that the present wave of client inventory adjustments is quite dramatic
However, monitor panels were supported by branded manufacturers' back orders in 2Q22, and China's lockdowns had little impact on whole monitor assembly capacity, so decline in terminal demand and inventory issues did not materialize until 3Q22 As brands aggressively destock, monitor panel shipments will decline sharply in 3Q22, with shipments estimated at 313 million units, down 277% QoQ, and still lower than the 367 million units in the same period in 2019 before the pandemic
Looking forward to 4Q22, TrendForce believes distribution channels and brands are still aiming to aggressively reduce whole device and panel inventories to reasonable levels before the end of this year Therefore, demand for IT panels in 4Q22 will remain conservative Shipments of notebook panels in 4Q22 are estimated at approximately 408 million units, down 456% YoY and 94% QoQ Monitor panel shipments are estimated at roughly 29 million units, down 404% YoY and 72% QoQ
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/06/30
According to TrendForce research, terminal demand remains weak due to repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, rising inflation, and China's pandemic lockdowns as monitor brands began to reduce purchasing of LCD monitor panels in 2Q22 LCD monitors panel shipments in 2Q22 are estimated at 425 million units, down 113% QoQ
According to TrendForce analysis, monitor brands set fairly high shipment targets in early 2022 Coupled with the impact of LCD monitor panel shortages in 2021, monitor brands gravitated towards overbuying panels in 1Q22 to prepare for ensuing shipments Driven by strong demand from monitor brands, shipments of LCD monitor panels reached 479 million units in 1Q22, up 20% YoY, the highest level for the period since 2012
However, due to changes in the international political and economic landscape in February this year, the market for consumer models has cooled and monitor brands have successively revised their LCD monitor shipment targets downward and simultaneously lowered their panel purchase volumes In the face of interest rate hikes by the world's major central banks and slowing economic growth, companies have also begun exercising caution in terms of capital expenditures, which has slowed demand for business-grade LCD monitors In the past, inventory issues emerged and the overall market became oversupplied when monitor brands overstocked as consumer and business demand gradually cooled
In addition, shipping and port congestion gradually eased in 1H22 The LCD monitors that were still in transit and accumulating in ports gradually arrived at distributors, resulting in a sharp rise in distribution inventory Faced with the dual pressure of high whole LCD monitor and panel inventory, monitor brands were forced to reduce panel purchases in 2H22 Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that LCD monitor panel shipments will continue to decline to 378 million units in 3Q22, representing a QoQ decline of 112% In 4Q22, there is a chance shipments will rebound marginally to 388 million units due to the sales surge initiated by monitor brands at the end of the year, representing a quarterly increase of 28% Annual shipments are forecast to reach 167 million units, a drop of 36% YoY
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/05/20
According to TrendForce research, due to China's lockdowns and inventory adjustments by notebook brands, April notebook panel shipments totaled 175 million units, down 215% YoY, and a new low for shipments since April 2020 and the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic At the same time, shipments of notebook panels in 2Q22 is estimated at 551 million units, down 212% QoQ and 19% YoY
According to TrendForce analysis, the latest wave of data corrections has occurred for two main reasons First, terminal demand has slowed down Due to factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, high inflation, and China’s lockdowns, the growth of major world economies has stagnated, and overall consumption has followed suit Looking at branded manufacturers as a whole, their sales figures of whole devices in 1Q22 totaled 556 million units, falling 45% YoY Brands faced a sales decline in 1Q22 which, in turn, has skewed the outlook for 2Q22 more conservative, causing purchase volume on the panel side to plummet in turn
Second, panel inventory held by various brands remains high In the past two years, strong demand for notebook terminals and a shortage of panels prompted brands to place a large number of orders to seize scant panel resources However, facing a reversal of demand, these large panel purchases have turned into considerable inventory It is reported that branded manufacturers’ notebook panel inventory on hand was approximately 8 to 12 weeks near the end of April This is 2 to 4 weeks more when compared to the normal watermark of 6 to 8 weeks, forcing brands to greatly downgrade the number of orders placed in order to adjust inventory
Momentum of notebook panel shipments remains weak in 2H22, annual shipment volume revised downward to 240 million units
After the 2Q22 correction, TrendForce sees two major risks remaining in 2H22 First, the depletion of panel inventories will likely continue into 3Q22 In addition to foundry shutdowns and the impact on production capacity caused by China’s lockdowns, logistics and component delays have also reduced the production capacity of whole device assembly, impeding the smooth depletion of panel inventory At the same time, as mentioned above, assuming that brands may not be able to completely deplete their inventories in 2Q22, the sales momentum of notebook panels in 3Q22 may subsequently be affected
Second, the inventory level of the whole devices held at the brand-end is high Since 2H21, shipping has remained congested and many notebook computers are still at sea or in port container distribution centers, becoming unsold whole device inventory TrendForce indicates that the inventory of branded laptops is significantly higher than before the pandemic and the combination of this high level of whole device inventory and weak terminal demand will further prolong the correction period of notebook panel shipments
Therefore, the momentum of notebook panel sales is unlikely to reverse in 3Q22 and a rebound in momentum in 4Q22 will depend on branded manufacturers’ depletion of on hand panel and whole device inventories To sum up, TrendForce forecasts that notebook panel shipments in 2022 will be revised downward to 240 million units, a YoY decline of 149%, with further potential for downward adjustment Market trends will depend on changes in the overall environment
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/24
In 2021, notebook panel shipments reached a record high of 282 million units, with an annual growth rate of 251%, according to TrendForce’s research In the first half of the year, demand was driven by the pandemic and primarily focused on consumer notebooks and Chromebooks while, in the second half of the year, as Europe and the United States gradually lifted lockdowns and work returned to normal, demand largely shifted to commercial models, which continued to support the demand for notebook panels throughout the year
It is worth noting that TrendForce believes shipment totals of notebook panels from 1Q22 to 2Q22 may be corrected Notebook panel shipments in 1Q22 are estimated at approximately 679 million units, a QoQ decline of 97% while 2Q22 shipments are expected to drop to 614 million units, down 95% QoQ In addition to the impact of the traditional off-season, there are two reasons for this correction One is that inventory on the brand-side has increased Due to the shortage of panels in the past two years, the brand-side continued to purchase panels in 2021 to avoid supply chain disruption Normally, notebook brands hold 4 to 8 weeks of inventory but some brands have already stocked up to 8 weeks Two, since a whole notebook requires numerous components, it cannot be assembled and shipped if even one is missing Limitations impose by incomplete materials lists caused the growth rate of notebook computer shipments to fall behind that of panel shipments, shifting notebook computer panels into oversupply
Despite this, TrendForce has specifically mentioned, since the profit margin of notebook panels still beats LCD monitor panels and TV panels, panel makers will still desire an increase in the supply of notebook panels However, in the face of a possible correction in notebook panel shipments, panel makers may accumulate more inventory and deepen the downward pressure on notebook panel pricing
Looking forward to 2022, panel shipment performance and price trends will be adversely affected by adjustments in notebook brand inventories in 1H22 In 2H22, notebook brands will continue to focus on sales plans for whole notebook computers The sales performance of these brands during the peak season is still worth looking forward to and the restocking momentum of notebook panels is expected to recover Current estimates put the shipment of notebook panels at 265 million in 2022, a decrease of 60% YoY
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
