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keyword：Caroline Chen，
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2015/02/03
According to TrendForce’s latest report, the tablet industry has entered its maturity as the worldwide tablets shipments in 2014 totaled 192 million units, a 22% decline compared with the previous year Besides market saturation, tablets still do not have a strong productive role in everyday lives of consumers and are susceptible to substitution As a result, the tablet market did not have a noticeable replacement demand and additional growth was limited
“In addition to the first-ever drop in total shipment volume, the rankings of the global top five brands also changed in 2014,” said Caroline Chen, Notebook Analyst for TrendForce The combined market shares of the top five brands fell from 70% in 2013 to 661% in 2014 Chen added, “This shows that the appeal of big-name brands is fading, and consumers are not as loyal to a particular brand as before with different options now in their horizons”
Apple’s market share down to 33% while Samsung just kept its level
Apple maintained its lead in the 2014 market despite its tablet shipments dropped to 634 million units, a plunge of 146% compared with the previous year Consumer had high hopes for iPads that matched the devices’ high prices However, the latest generation of iPads do not offer extensive upgrades compared with the earlier generations, showing signs that the iPad’s hardware advancement has reached a ceiling
At number two, Samsung too suffered a decline in tablet shipments Its annual shipment volume for 2014 was 41 million units, a slight fall of 25% Samsung product lines are relatively numerous, and it was able to compete in a wide range of product categories, from 7 to 12-inch tablets Nonetheless, Samsung in 2014 struggled hard to keep the same level of tablet market share as the year before against cheaper alternatives and Apple products
Lenovo managed to push Amazon out of the number three spot in the worldwide tablet brand rankings with its expansion of product lines and complete positioning in the price spectrum Although Lenovo was still far behind number two in 2014, it has increased its market share to 56%
ASUS took the fourth spot in the 2014 market Despite not achieving its shipment target, ASUS successfully squeezed itself into the top five due to its promotion of US $99 tablets and its well-established Transformer product line
2014 was not a good year for platform vendors as they saw their shipments decreased significantly Amazon fell in rankings down to number five while Google was excluded from the top five brands altogether Microsoft still was not able to join this selected group, but its Surface Pro 3 had successfully made an impact on the large-size tablets and 2-in-1 PC markets
2014/11/27
Notebook computer shipments will grow 06% in 2015 to 1746 million units, while tablet computer shipments will decline 35% to 1856 million units, according to TrendForce, a Taiwan-based market intelligence firm Notebook manufacturers largely vied for market share this year by slashing prices, said Caroline Chen, a notebook analyst at TrendForce Business procurement of notebooks was also stable in 2014 as companies upgraded their laptops, she said In 2015, TrendForce expects a more diverse array of products will enter the notebook market along with a new operating system Facing intense competition from smartphones – phablets, in particular – and low-priced notebooks, tablets could eventually be forced out of the market unless manufacturers develop a new business model for them
Tablets performed poorly in 2014 while notebooks did increasingly well, said Chen These products are interchangeable because of their similar features, Chen said Overall, 366 million mobile PCs (notebook computers and tablets) were shipped in 2014, which was similar to the previous year, according to TrendForce’s research “This means that some users who had switched over to tablets returned to notebooks,” Chen said “We expect overall demand to stagnate in the mobile PC market over the next few years as high competition among brands, operating systems and products forces some manufacturers to exit the market”
3 key trends in the mobile PC market in 2015:
2-in-1 PCs have the greatest growth potential, Touchscreen notebooks will stagnate
While the 2-in-1 PC is not a new product, prices have come down to reasonable levels and specifications are improving, which will help shipments grow fast in 2015 Typically, 2-in-1 PCs are 10-13 inches in size In this segment, the key products are Microsoft’s Surface Pro 3 and the 129-inch iPad Max, which is expected to launch next year New sizes such as 11 inch, 12 inch and 131 inch and new panels with 3:2 and 4:3 aspect ratio are also important to the development of the 2-in-1 PC market In 2014, 2-in-1 PCs accounted for 4-5% of the overall notebook, but that figure is expected to rise to 8-10% in 2015
Windows 10 has returned to desktop design, which means a return of the keyboard and mouse for regular Clamshell NB users Once the desktop user environment returns, the chance for the users to use touch-screen controls will be even lower TrendForce forecasts that the penetration for the Clamshell NB will be only 9% in 2014 and will not increase further in 2015
Microsoft, Google and Intel subsidies affect the market
Google’s low-cost Chromebook notebook computer performed well this year, benefiting from its cloud storage capacity and strong data security capabilities But Chromebook sales were affected by Microsoft’s subsidized low-cost Windows notebooks In 2014, Google sold about 65 million Chromebooks and the device’s market penetration reached 4% But if Chromebook uses the 2-in-1 PC concept, it will be difficult for Google to keep the device’s price low, Chen said TrendForce forecasts Chomebook sales will increase slightly to 8 million units in 2015
This year, Microsoft and Intel both launched subsidy plans for their notebooks and tablets, which had reduced their revenues “Because they lower manufacturers’ costs, subsidies indirectly benefit consumers, but it will be better if Microsoft and Intel can find more substantial ways to develop the market, such as by utilizing the 2-in-1 concept or cloud computing,” Chen said
For tablets, developing new applications is key
In 2014, major tablet manufacturers like Apple and Samsung saw shipments decline and even stagnate That shows that incentives are low for customers to purchase new tablets, Chen said She cautioned against use low prices as a way to refocus consumers’ attention on tablets “In the short run, low prices can boost sales, but the ultimate result may be negative,” she said “In the case of a price war, smaller brands may be forced to exit the market and product differentiation vanishes,” she said Still, low-priced tablets have the potential to be used in some niche markets such as early childhood education or the food and beverage industry, Chen said In this type of scenario, content service will be the key for tablets to remain relevant in the future, she added Lastly, as the red-hot 2-in-1 PC market grows fast, it will take market share away from tablets It will be imperative for tablet manufacturers to find a way out of that conundrum, Chen said
For more detailed information on tablet and notebook reports, please refer to the "03 Quarterly Downstream Industry Market Update", "16 WitsView Monthly Mobile PC ODM Shipment Tracker” and "T5 WitsView Monthly Tablet Panel and Touch Module Price Book”
2014/10/29
Global notebook shipments reached 458 million units in the third quarter, an increase of 72% over the quarter ending in June and 42% over the same period last year, according to TrendForce Among the top 7 notebook vendors, shipment growth was an exceptional 86% Despite the strong performance of notebooks in the third quarter, TrendForce is concerned that that momentum will be unsustainable and shipments will decrease 3% to 5% in the fourth quarter
Low pricing played an important role in the growth of notebook shipments in the third quarter, said Caroline Chen, a notebook analyst at TrendForce “Low pricing helped notebook vendors maintain strong shipment growth in the third quarter despite no new Microsoft operating system or Intel processor being launched,” she said HP was the top-performing notebook vendor during the third quarter, with its shipments rising 18% Lenovo also posted outstanding results on the back of heavy discounting Shipments in September rose 40% over August Third quarter shipments rose 14% over the April-June period and 20% over the same period a year earlier Acer also did well in the third quarter, buoyed in part by its restructuring moves Its shipments rose 14% from July-September and 25% over the third quarter of 2013 Apple also used low prices to boost sales It offered $100 discounts on its MacBook computers, attracting new mid and high-end consumers and added iPhone users attracted by the compatibility of their smartphones with Apple notebooks As a result, Apple notebook shipments rose 19% in the third quarter Overall, its prospects for growth in the notebook market look good
If notebook prices continue to drop, tremendous pressure will be exerted on the margins of small vendors, which can only rely on low pricing to compete in the marketplace, Chen said “Big brands are perceived by consumers as being higher quality They also have better customer service and their brand awareness is higher When they also add low pricing to that stable of strengths, it forces smaller vendors to either completely change their business models or exit the market,” she said, adding that the 7 major notebook brands together have an 88% market share Some big companies are leaving the market slowly, like Samsung and Sony Toshiba, meanwhile, is planning to change its product strategy
2014/08/25
When the iPad was launched in 2010, it was an instant hit and spurred a tablet PC craze Such was the popularity of tablets that notebook PC sales stagnated and eventually began to fall as consumers increasingly switched to tablets
Tablets have been revolutionary in the sense that they have created demand for a new product category – one that competes fiercely with netbooks and regular notebook PCs Yet in 2014, their novelty seems to have worn off Prices have bottomed out Low-price notebooks are stealing away tablet market share As a result, branded tablets will experience negative growth for the first time this year, said Caroline Chen, a notebook PC analyst with TrendForce, a Taiwan-based market intelligence firm Chen expects 153 million brand-name tablets will be shipped in 2014, a year-on-year decrease of 18% Notebook shipments, on the other hand, will increase 1% on year to 171 million, she added
With the tablet supply chain mature and shipments growing fast, the retail price of tablets has fallen sharply, Chen said As a result, among all producers besides Apple, there will be a long-term price war in the tablet market, she added Apple will merely release a revised version of its iPad Air in the second half of the year Meanwhile, Samsung, another major player in the market, has only equipped high-end tablets under its own brand with its OLED screens, suggesting that the tablet market is flagging TrendForce data back up that assertion The data show that while tablet shipments will rise in the second half of the year, the main reason that increase appears substantial is that shipments in the first half were so low
At the same time, because of rising demand for tablet PCs and the rapid decline in the retail price of notebooks, the market for netbooks has almost vanished By contrast, demand for notebook PCs has started to rebound “Time has shown that notebooks are irreplaceable,” said Chen “They offer larger screens than tablets as well as a keyboard and mouse, which are all important for those who use their computers primarily for work reasons Tablets remain limited to Internet browsing and entertainment functions”
TrendForce believes notebook shipments will increase in the second half of the year for several reasons First, with the tablet market flagging, they face fewer threats Second, demand for notebooks in the commercial market remains Finally, notebooks are priced very competitively All of these factors will contribute to boost notebook demand, giving brand-name manufacturers such as Hewlett-Packard (HP), Lenovo and others room to grow that side of their businesses As such, TrendForce estimates the global notebook PC market has the potential to expand 4-7% in the second half of the year, making 2014 the year when slowing notebook demand may finally reverse
Figure 1: 2008-2014 Brand-name Tablet PC and Notebook PC Shipments Growth Rate
For more detailed information on tablet and notebook reports, please refer to the "16 WitsView Monthly Mobile PC ODM Shipment Tracker” and "T5 WitsView Monthly Tablet Panel and Touch Module Price Book”
2014/07/21
Chromebook shipments reached 18 million in the second quarter of 2014, and Acer held the number one spot in shipments with a 30% market, surpassing Samsung Electronics for the first time, according to WitsView, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based TrendForce
According to WitsView Research Assistant Manager, Caroline hen, Acer and Samsung were neck and neck with one another in terms of shipments during the first half of 2014, both with approximately 900,000 The second half of the year will largely determine which takes the number one spot in Chromebook shipments due to the peak season
Acer’s 30% market share in the second quarter gave the company a 6pp increase over Samsung Hewlett-Packard (HP) meanwhile treaded closely with a 21% share to hold the number three spot Samsung used to be the top competitor in the Chromebook segment since 2013 but saw its spot drop in the second quarter due to high pricing for two new units that were released Meanwhile, other vendors had competitive pricing and released new units as well, which in turn provided consumers with a wider range of choices Most notably that the release of Microsoft’s US$249 unit has also decreased the attractiveness of the overall Chromebook market
Chen added that two major factors for Chromebook sales in the market include pricing and data security for enterprises Chromebook cloud computing storage is easy to manage for enterprise in terms of data security, but its pricing advantages lost out to Microsoft, who is lowering pricing for certain notebooks from US$249 to US$199 to further dominate in the low-priced notebook segment Overall, the penetration rate for Chromebooks in 2014 is expected to reach 3-5%
Graph 1 Chromebook shipment proportion by vendor during 2Q14
