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2022/03/23
Due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, automotive factories currently located in Russia have shut down successively and stopped importing vehicles, TrendForce asserts In addition, Russia has stated that if foreign-funded enterprises choose to permanently suspend business or withdraw from the market during this period, the Russian government will nationalize their business assets Most automotive brands have factories in Russia and now face the dual pressures of international public opinion and corporate losses According to TrendForce investigations, after Renault-Nissan acquired the Russian brand LADA, its market share reached 32%, making it the largest automotive brand in Russia followed by Hyundai-Kia at 23% and Volkswagen at 12%
According to TrendForce, since Renault is the largest shareholder of local automaker AVTOVAZ and Russia is the company's second largest market, whether AVTOVAZ is nationalized or sales are lost, the overall impact on Renault cannot be underestimated In addition, even if production can continue, the depreciation of the ruble will greatly increase the cost of importing components
Soaring costs not conducive to automotive industry recovery
The large number of components and the long supply chain inherent in the automotive industry makes mitigating geopolitical risk difficult Almost all international or regional events will affect the normal operation of this industry The Russian-Ukrainian war will not only affect automaker assets, supply chains, sales, and revenue in Russia and around the world in the short term but, in the long term, geopolitics will influence business planning, competiveness, and technology options More broadly, geopolitical and economic conflicts are derailing automakers' plans to recover from the pandemic and chip shortages
According to TrendForce, there are three major factors impeding the recovery of the automotive industry and these factors will further affect automobile sales in 2022 First, the production of vehicle components in Ukraine has halted, affecting the production of complete vehicles Volkswagen indicated that it intends to move production capacity to North America and China due to the shortage of vehicle wiring harnesses Second, Russia produces various upstream raw materials such as nickel and palladium for vehicle manufacturing Due to supply constraints, various costs have risen sharply and some car manufacturers have begun to increase the price of complete vehicles Third, inflationary pressures have risen sharply, leading to rising costs of living and a reduction of consumer spending power
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2022/02/24
In 2021, total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles) reached 6473 million units, with annual growth rate reaching 122%, the highest growth rate since the development of vehicle electrification, according to TrendForce’s research Battery electric vehicles (BEV) accounted for approximately 716% of total sales and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) accounted for approximately 281%, while the scale of fuel cell vehicles remained small
Tesla ranked first among BEV brands with total global sales exceeding 930,000 vehicles and a 202% market share SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked second, posting strong sales numbers for their low-priced mini electric vehicles in 2021 Other BEV brands such as Ora and Chery have also greatly increased sales performance on the backs of mini-vehicle products The significance of this segment in the NEV market is considerable On the whole, a reinvigorated BEV market has birthed a number of new brands that have further fractured market share The concentration of market share among the top ten BEV brands dropped from 644% in 2020 to 57% in 2022, indicating an escalation of market competition
BYD ranked first in PHEV sales with 273,000 vehicles sold in 2021, accounting for 15% of the market Both BYD and seventh ranked Li Auto posted multifold growth, suggesting China’s reduced PHEV subsidy policy exerted minimum impact on the market In addition to a number of luxury European brands holding their spots on the sales ranking, TOYOTA moved swiftly into fifth place while Jeep, a part of the Stellantis group and known for its performance cars, ranked 10th with the lion’s share of sales coming from the United States and Europe
From a regional perspective, NEV sales in China once again exceeded half of the global total in 2021 while NEVs accounted for 193% of China's overall auto market TrendForce states, in addition to fierce competition, the Chinese market also includes numerous new brands, accelerated mass production, joint venture brands adjusting strategies, and overseas deployment of domestic brands targeting Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia
In addition, with the European Union strongly promoting electrification, the penetration rate of NEVs in several leading countries such as Germany and France is expected to reach 20~25% in 2022 In terms of the currently trailing US market, the Biden administration's many policy incentives have focused the actions of brands and supply chains which include the introduction of ever-popular (in the US market) battery electric pickups by a number of automakers In addition, many new brands such as Rivian, Lucid Motors, Fisker, and Lordstown Motors have successively entered the mass production and assembly stage of vehicle manufacturing or plan to enter mass production in 2022, making the future of the US electric vehicle market worth observing in terms of quantity and competition
As the global trend of energy conservation and carbon reduction remains unchanged and automakers shift greater proportions of their product lines to electric vehicles, the total number of NEVs is forecast to exceed 10 million in 2022 However, the international situation is turbulent, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the price of crude oil to rise In addition, Ukraine supplies neon gas for the semiconductor process and Russia is a producer of nickel ore Nickel is a key material for electric vehicle batteries Once the war heats up, the automotive industry will bear the brunt of rising costs and unstable supply chains, which are variables for the development of NEVs in 2022
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/11/12
Total global sales of NEVs (new energy vehicles) for the first three quarters of 2021 (January-September) reached 42 million units, with BEVs in particular accounting for 292 million units, a 153% YoY growth, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Total sales of PHEVs, on the other hand, reached 128 million units, a 135% YoY growth Compared to the overall automotive market, whose growth has been constrained by the ongoing semiconductor shortage and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales of NEVs still remained relatively strong
Regarding BEV sales, Tesla comfortably took the leadership position with a 215% market share The automaker’s sales volume for the first three quarters of this year already surpassed its sales volume for 2020 Taking second place on the top 10 list, Wuling Hongguang was able to maintain its high volume of sales due to not only low retail prices, but also a gradual expansion of its target markets from tier-three and tier-four cities to tier-one and tier-two cities in China This shift would seem to indicate a corresponding expansion of and shift in Wuling Hongguang’s customer base BYD and Volkswagen took third and fourth places, respectively, with the latter aggressively consolidating its BEV offerings into the ID Family this year Vehicles in the ID Family have accounted for nearly all of Volkswagen’s BEV sales since 3Q21 Despite the rapid growth of the BEV market, competition has been intensifying after traditional automakers began releasing their own BEV models at a faster pace while emerging automakers also began delivering vehicles
It should be noted that, although the global semiconductor shortage has not damaged the NEV market to the same degree as it did the traditional ICE vehicle market, the NEV market is not entirely immune to the resultant supply-side issues In addition, China’s power rationing and pandemic-generated transportation/logistics disruptions likewise affected automakers’ manufacturing operations to various degrees Taken together, these aforementioned factors became some of the underlying causes responsible for the shifts in NEV automakers’ market shares
Regarding PHEV sales, BYD put up a remarkable performance by leapfrogging to second place in the rankings, and this can primarily be attributed to the release of BYD’s DM-i vehicles, which feature a super hybrid technology aimed at reducing fuel consumption Thanks to the DM-i vehicles, BYD’s PHEV sales began skyrocketing in 2Q21, and the automaker was able to overtake several European automakers with respect to total PHEV sales for the first nine months of 2021 Much like the BEV market, despite the growths in most automakers’ sales volumes, companies will find it increasingly difficult to raise their PHEV market share
Looking ahead to the NEV market’s future, TrendForce believes that, as traditional global automakers gradually kick off mass production of vehicles based on the battery electric platform, more and more new BEV models will be released to market at an accelerated pace Furthermore, the next one to three years will serve as the key timeframe for emerging automakers as well as new entrants that crossed from other industries to achieve mass production Therefore, there remains much potential for changes to occur within the rankings of NEV automakers’ sales and market shares
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/06/23
As the pace of electrification accelerates in the global automotive market, and various governments worldwide implement subsidy policies that encourage consumer EV purchases, sales of new energy vehicles (NEV, which includes both BEV and PHEV) are continuing to rise as well, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations NEV sales for 2021 are projected to reach 435 million units, a 49% increase YoY
TrendForce indicates that electrification, smartization, and automation are the three key determinants of the ongoing transformation taking place in the automotive industry Guided by these three determinants, not only are the strategies, business models, and competitions of automakers transforming, but the automotive supply chain is also changing and expanding Upstream component suppliers and downstream manufacturers alike are now operating in accordance with new paradigms
High potential for NEV growth entices emerging competitors to enter the market
Now that the competition between traditional and emerging automakers in the NEV market is gradually intensifying, traditional automakers have begun releasing BEVs that are based on purely electric platforms rather than preexisting ICE vehicles However, for the vast majority of mainstream automakers, NEV sales account for less than 10% of their total car sales These automakers are therefore placing a top priority on expanding the lineup and sales volume of their NEV models Emerging automakers, on the other hand, are instead focusing on expanding their production capacities, and Tesla as well as Chinese brands (including NIO and XPeng) have made their respective capacity expansion plans
NEV sales currently account for only 5% of total automotive sales As such, not only does the NEV market still have high potential for growth, but this potential has also attracted new players, which are mostly consumer electronics and IoT vendors such as Xiaomi and OPPO, to enter the market Given their lack of competencies in developing and manufacturing whole vehicles, these companies are instead acquiring existing automakers or utilizing ODM services Therefore, automotive ODM services are likely to ramp up going forward, while automakers and ODMs will continue building factories via joint ventures, sharing their technologies, and jointly developing NEV models
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2021/05/13
Total NEV (New Energy Vehicle, which includes both BEV and PHEV but excludes HEV) sales for the 1Q21 period reached 109 million units, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations Of this figure, BEVs accounted for 750,000 units in sales, a 153% growth YoY, while PHEVs accounted for 340,000 units in sales, a 128% growth YoY In particular, Chinese automakers collectively possessed the largest shares in the BEV market in 1Q21, and certain Chinese BEV manufacturers moved up in the rankings accordingly Other than longstanding market leader Tesla, Chinese automakers Wuling Hongguang, BYD, and ORA occupied three of the top five spots
With regards to the BEV market, Tesla remained firmly as the sales leader, primarily thanks to Model 3, which surpassed Model Y by more than 50,000 units in sales despite the latter’s sales growth Wuling Hongguang continued to set sales records in the Chinese market with its Hongguang MINI, which retails for a modest RMB 28,800 Not only was the MINI the highest-selling BEV in China in 1Q21, but Wuling Hongguang also leapfrogged to second place in the top 10 by overtaking Volkswagen and BYD, which ranked second and third in the global BEV market last year Chinese automaker ORA ranked fifth in 1Q21 mainly thanks to the ORA R1, which is also known as the ORA Black Cat and retails for RMB 69,800, with a driving range of 301km Much like the Hongguang MINI, the ORA R1 has been highly popular in its home market
As one of the Chinese automakers whose models are relatively high-priced, NIO took seventh place on the top 10 list NIO’s EVs support both charging and battery swapping functions As well, the automaker has been offering BaaS (battery-as-a-service) since 2020, and NIO EVs that are paired with a BaaS subscription plan can be purchased at a RMB 70,000 discount These functional and cost-oriented advantages will likely propel NIO’s sales even further
With regards to the PHEV market, changes in the sales rankings for 1Q21 were relatively minor, with no changes in the top four spots, occupied by European automakers BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Volkswagen, respectively Toyota rose through the ranks and took the fifth position after it released PHEV versions of its popular RAV4 and Prius models Notably, Li Xiang, or Li Auto, has been gaining traction in the Chinese market The automaker was able to break into the top 10 list of PHEV sales via only one model, the Li Xiang One, and whether it can maintain this remarkable performance going forward remains to be seen
On the whole, TrendForce believes that the regional fluctuation of EV sales will be the key to determining the ranking of automakers in the NEV market In particular, Chinese automakers are able to benefit from several factors: first, China’s vast market; second, the Chinese government’s push for NEV sales in rural areas since March 2021; and finally, online auto retailers’ sales promotions during shopping seasons such as the Shuangpin Shopping Festival (or Brand and Quality Online Shopping Festival) Sales performances in the European market, on the other hand, appear relatively uncertain in 2Q21 due to each European country’s varying market conditions, border restrictions, and pandemic responses
